Mediobanca investor Delfin will keep assessing 'very interesting' Monte Paschi bid, chairman tells paper

Delfin, Mediobanca's largest investor with significant stakes in both entities (19.8% in Mediobanca, 9.866% in Monte dei Paschi), continues to assess Monte dei Paschi's takeover offer for Mediobanca, despite Mediobanca's board previously rejecting the €14.6 billion bid as 'totally inadequate' and 32% below fair value. Delfin's chairman, Francesco Milleri, described the offer as 'very interesting' and suggested that a price adjustment reflecting Mediobanca's market value would enhance its attractiveness, indicating ongoing potential for a revised bid or continued pressure on the acquisition.

Analysis

A significant disconnect has emerged between Mediobanca's board and its largest shareholder, Delfin, regarding a €14.6 billion takeover offer from Monte dei Paschi (MPS). Mediobanca's management has publicly rejected the bid as "totally inadequate," citing a valuation approximately 32% below what it deems fair value. However, Delfin, which holds a commanding 19.8% stake in Mediobanca and a 9.866% position in MPS, described the offer as "very interesting." The chairman of Delfin, Francesco Milleri, explicitly signaled that an upward adjustment to the bid price to better reflect Mediobanca's market value would increase its appeal. This public statement applies significant pressure on Mediobanca's board and suggests Delfin is actively facilitating a revised, more favorable offer, creating a fluid and uncertain M&A scenario with a potentially high market impact on the Italian banking sector.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors in Mediobanca should monitor for a revised bid from Monte dei Paschi, as pressure from top shareholder Delfin creates a catalyst for a potentially higher offer.
• The stated 32% valuation gap and Delfin's support for a deal present a potential M&A arbitrage opportunity, though it carries the risk of the deal collapsing if no revised offer materializes.
• Given the conflict between Mediobanca's board and its primary investor, positions in either company are subject to significant headline risk and volatility until the standoff is resolved.