Buy 5 High-Flying Old Economy Stocks of 2026 With More Room to Run

Zacks highlights five old-economy stocks up more than 20% year to date—ADM, XOM, CVX, WAB and CMI—as having further upside in 2026 due to favorable Zacks Rank #1 or #2 ratings. The article cites strong current-year growth expectations, including earnings growth of 26% for ADM, 42.2% for XOM, 71.5% for CVX, 16.3% for WAB and 9.5% for CMI, alongside improving analyst consensus estimates. Positive catalysts include higher oil prices, free cash flow, dividend growth, buybacks, and demand from data centers and rail/logistics end markets.

Analysis

The common thread is not “old economy” strength; it is balance-sheet endurance meeting a late-cycle market that is starting to reward cash conversion again. The highest-quality part of this basket is the energy complex, where capital returns are still being funded by operating leverage rather than financial engineering, but the dispersion matters: XOM and CVX are effectively self-funded buyback machines, while ADM is more of an earnings-revision recovery story tied to margin normalization. That makes the setup less about sector beta and more about which names can keep estimate momentum alive for another 2-3 quarters.

The second-order effect is that these rallies tighten the relative-value case against industrial cyclicals and lower-quality commodity proxies. WAB and CMI look like “macro improvment” trades, but their upside is more sensitive to whether capex and freight volumes inflect sustainably; if rates stay restrictive and manufacturing stays uneven, these are the first names where a good narrative can outrun fundamentals. In contrast, the energy majors have a cleaner catalyst stack because cash flow support does not require perfect demand conditions—moderate oil prices plus capital discipline is enough.

Consensus may be underestimating how quickly estimate upgrades can decelerate after the easy recovery phase. ADM is vulnerable if Nutrition margin gains plateau, and the current upgrade cadence already implies the market is paying up for a fairly modest growth profile. The contrarian risk on XOM/CVX is that the market is extrapolating buybacks and production growth without fully discounting policy/geopolitical friction; however, those risks are longer-dated than the next few quarters, which keeps the trade investable into year-end. The most interesting miss is that the “broadening rally” is likely to remain narrow: these are not equal opportunities, and the best risk/reward still sits in the energy names rather than the industrials.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long XOM vs short XLI for the next 3-6 months: use energy cash-flow resilience against industrial beta; target 8-12% relative outperformance if macro data stays mixed.
• Overweight CVX on a 6-12 month horizon with a stop on any sustained downstream margin compression; upside is cleaner than XOM if cash returns stay aggressive, but valuation leaves less room for error.
• Treat ADM as a tactical long, not a core compounder: buy on any post-earnings pullback and look to monetize after the next 1-2 estimate revisions; best case is a 15-20% rerating, not a multi-year story.
• Avoid chasing WAB and CMI after the move; if bought at all, structure as a pair against weaker transport/industrial names to isolate cyclical improvement rather than paying for broad macro upside.
• If crude weakens materially, rotate out of XOM/CVX into ADM/CMI; the former have stronger near-term momentum, but the latter are better positioned if oil fails to sustain current cash-flow assumptions.