Has the hunt for AI compute uncovered the next Cerebras?

The key market signal is not that inference is growing, but that the value chain is fragmenting: compute is moving from a single-architecture, hyperscaler-dominated stack toward a more modular market where chip choice, deployment constraints, and software routing all matter. That is structurally constructive for NVDA at the top end because every incremental inference market still expands total accelerator spend, but it is also a medium-term margin threat if purpose-built inference ASICs and optimized routing layers reduce CUDA lock-in and compress effective pricing per token.

The more important second-order effect is capacity reallocation. Air-cooled, lower-power inference boxes can be deployed in legacy facilities and repurposed industrial footprints, which means the bottleneck shifts from new data-center construction to network access, power interconnects, and colocation relationships. That creates an opening for Intel’s inference-friendly ecosystem to regain relevance if it can pair acceptable performance with easier deployment economics; the issue is less raw speed than time-to-revenue and capex intensity. The market may be underestimating how much of the inference race is won by operators who can stand up capacity in weeks rather than quarters.

The contrarian view is that “faster tokens/sec” may be less durable as a moat than investors assume. Once multiple inference clouds route across several model types, customer switching costs fall and the winner becomes whoever owns distribution, orchestration, and the best unit economics, not necessarily the fastest chip. That favors a barbell: the chip leader at the top of the stack, but caution on smaller neoclouds whose differentiation can be commoditized if model providers or hyperscalers bundle inference aggressively.

Catalyst timing matters: the next 1-3 months are about capacity announcements and customer wins, while the 6-12 month window is about whether these deployment claims convert into utilization and gross margin. Risks to the bullish thesis include delayed chip ramps, lower-than-advertised perf/Watt, or hyperscalers discounting inference enough to force a race to the bottom. If that happens, the current enthusiasm for inference-native clouds likely rotates back toward whoever controls enterprise demand and software routing rather than standalone GPU/ASIC supply.