Trump says Hamas response to Gaza ceasefire-hostage deal should come in 24 hours

US President Donald Trump expects Hamas's response within 24 hours to a proposed 60-day Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal, which includes the phased release of 10 living hostages and 18 bodies. Reports indicate Hamas has shown flexibility on disarmament and symbolic official exile, contingent on US guarantees for a lasting end to the conflict. Israel faces significant US pressure to accept the deal ahead of PM Netanyahu's Washington visit, though the critical issue of Gaza's post-war governance, particularly Hamas's insistence on maintaining law enforcement control, remains a key unresolved hurdle.

Analysis

A potential breakthrough in the nearly two-year Gaza conflict is imminent, with Hamas expected to respond within 24 hours to a US-backed 60-day ceasefire proposal. The deal, termed the Witkoff framework, involves a multi-phase release of 10 living hostages and 18 bodies. Significant diplomatic momentum is indicated by reports of Hamas showing "flexibility" on core Israeli demands, including potential disarmament commitments and the symbolic exile of officials. However, this flexibility is conditional upon a direct US guarantee for a permanent cessation of hostilities, a guarantee President Trump has reportedly offered. The primary obstacle remains the post-war governance of Gaza; Hamas insists on retaining control of internal law enforcement, citing societal stability, a position directly at odds with Israel's stated goal of removing the group from power. The timing is critical, as Israel's security cabinet is set to vote on the proposal ahead of Prime Minister Netanyahu's visit to Washington, where he faces heavy US pressure to secure an agreement.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor energy markets and defense sector equities, as a successful ceasefire agreement would likely reduce the geopolitical risk premium, potentially leading to lower oil prices and a rotation out of defense-related assets.
• Pay close attention to the final terms regarding post-war governance in Gaza, as a temporary truce without a long-term resolution may only provide short-lived market relief, while a comprehensive plan could signal more durable regional stability.
• Evaluate positions sensitive to global risk sentiment, as the high market impact score of 0.7 suggests that a definitive outcome—either a deal or a collapse in talks—will serve as a major catalyst for broader market direction.