Global Macro Outlook: Third Quarter 2026

Rising energy prices lifted inflation and weakened the growth outlook in some regions, though the view is that it is not severe enough to trigger recessions. Central bank policy divergence is emerging: the euro area and Japan are raising rates, while the Fed and other countries are leaning toward a “wait and see” approach.

Analysis

Rising energy prices lifted inflation and weakened the growth outlook in some regions, though the view is that it is not severe enough to trigger recessions. Central bank policy divergence is emerging: the euro area and Japan are raising rates, while the Fed and other countries are leaning toward a “wait and see” approach.