One Number Separates This Oil Shock From A Full-Blown Recession — Fidelity Did The Math

Oil topped $100/barrel this month for the first time since 2022, driven by disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz amid the war in Iran. The supply shock is pushing gasoline prices higher and adding upside pressure to inflation. Equities are reacting: the S&P 500 recorded its first three-week losing streak in about a year, signaling risk-off positioning and potential broader market volatility.

Analysis

Oil topped $100/barrel this month for the first time since 2022, driven by disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz amid the war in Iran. The supply shock is pushing gasoline prices higher and adding upside pressure to inflation. Equities are reacting: the S&P 500 recorded its first three-week losing streak in about a year, signaling risk-off positioning and potential broader market volatility.