3 AI Chip Stocks Down 15% or More to Buy Right Now

The article argues AI chip pullbacks create entry points: Broadcom is down 23% from its spring highs (valuation cited as below 20x fiscal 2007 estimates) with a projected >$100B ASIC revenue in fiscal 2027 and Alphabet capex growth supporting TPU/custom networking demand. AMD is ~18% off highs as inference and agentic AI tailwinds accelerate, supported by partnerships with OpenAI and Meta. SK Hynix is ~20% below its IPO high; with HBM supply tightness expected to keep the market imbalanced until at least 2030 and a forward P/E around ~6x, the piece frames memory as another longer-duration AI beneficiary.

Analysis

The clearest second-order winner is AVGO: custom silicon adoption shifts spend from one-off GPU purchases toward multi-year platform contracts plus attach on networking, which tends to be stickier and higher margin. If hyperscalers keep internalizing more of the stack, the market may be underestimating how much of the AI capex pie migrates from merchant accelerators to design-win royalties, interconnect, and software-adjacent customization. That said, this is a volume story first and a margin story second, so the key variable is not enthusiasm but whether hyperscaler capex stays elevated into the next budget cycle.

AMD is a more execution-sensitive trade. The upside case is real if inference demand becomes the dominant growth engine, but inference is a cost-optimization market, so share gains will likely be won through price/performance and memory efficiency rather than pure performance leadership. The risk is that partnerships create narrative momentum before revenue inflects, making the stock vulnerable to any slowdown in cloud qualification cycles or if custom silicon compresses the addressable market for merchant GPUs faster than expected.

SKHY looks like the cleanest supply-side expression: tight HBM capacity should support pricing for longer than a normal memory upcycle, but the market may still be pricing in a straight-line supercycle that assumes no meaningful supply response. The contrarian view is that the cycle is durable, but not immune to 2027-2028 capacity additions or a moderation in HBM content growth per accelerator. Over the next 1-3 months, the most important falsifier is any guide-down from hyperscaler capex or slower-than-expected HBM lead-time improvement; over 6-18 months, it is a compression in AI capex ROI that forces customers to stretch deployment timelines.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long AVGO vs short a basket of merchant AI compute exposure (NVDA or SMH) on a 3-6 month horizon: thesis is that custom ASIC/networking monetization is steadier than training-GPU multiple support; exit if hyperscaler capex growth rolls over or AVGO’s AI revenue cadence decelerates.
• Buy AVGO on pullbacks into the next hyperscaler capex print; use a 6-12 month horizon and target a re-rating if ASIC revenue visibility continues to extend. Falsifier: any evidence that design wins are not translating into booked revenue.
• Treat AMD as a tactical, not core, long: prefer a 3-4 month starter position only on weakness, with tighter risk. Upside is inference share capture; downside is that partnerships may lag into actual shipments. Falsifier: lack of incremental datacenter revenue acceleration next quarter.
• Long SKHY on a 6-18 month view versus short a lower-quality memory proxy if available; the trade is pricing power and supply discipline, not unit growth. Falsifier: HBM ASPs or lead times start normalizing faster than expected.
• Watch GOOGL and META as indirect demand signals rather than direct longs here; if either cuts AI capex, the whole AVGO/AMD complex likely de-rates before fundamentals fully show up.