What to Watch With MGM Stock in 2026

MGM Resorts has recovered into positive territory for 2025 (shares up about 2.6% YTD) despite meaningful Las Vegas Strip weakness that produced essentially zero revenue growth for the nine months ended Sept. 30, 2025 and a 4.9% drop in companywide adjusted EBITDA (Caesars reported a 4.2% EBITDA decline). The stock trades cheaply at roughly 15x forward earnings versus Caesars at ~29x, and 2026 earnings estimates are highly dispersionary (from $0.30 to $3.31 per share), implying upside from modestly positive catalysts. With one‑time Vegas costs (e.g., MGM Grand remodel) behind it and potential growth from BetMGM, MGM China and new projects in Dubai and Osaka, the shares could rerate on better near‑term operating trends, though the outlook remains uncertain and dependent on recovery in Strip demand and execution on international/digital initiatives.

Analysis

MGM Resorts' shares are up roughly 2.57% year-to-date after volatile price action in 2025, despite material weakness at its Las Vegas Strip operations that produced essentially zero revenue growth for the nine months ended Sept. 30, 2025 and a 4.9% drop in companywide adjusted EBITDA over that period. Those Strip headwinds mirror Caesars’ performance, which reported a 4.2% decline in adjusted EBITDA, and have left MGM lagging the S&P 500 even as the stock has shown recent resilience.

The stock trades at about 15x forward earnings versus Caesars at ~29x, while 2026 sell-side EPS forecasts are highly dispersed (from $0.30 to $3.31), implying valuation sensitivity to near-term news. With one-time Vegas expenses such as the MGM Grand remodel in the rearview, modest positive operational beats or clearer progress from digital and international initiatives could produce meaningful rerating given current bearish-leaning sentiment.

Key catalysts to watch are sequential improvements in Las Vegas demand and margins, continued growth at BetMGM and MGM China, and execution updates on casino projects in Dubai and Osaka; conversely, persistence of Strip weakness or missed digital/international targets would keep downside risk elevated. Market sentiment is mildly positive, but the investment thesis remains contingent on near-term operating inflection and narrowing analyst estimate dispersion.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider a selective, size-limited position or a phased accumulation tied to clear evidence of sequential improvement in Las Vegas revenue and adjusted EBITDA, given the 15x forward valuation and high earnings dispersion
• Monitor upcoming quarterly results and guidance for signs that one-time remodel costs are truly behind results and for concrete growth metrics at BetMGM and MGM China before increasing exposure
• Use hedges or keep position sizes modest until the company provides consistent positive beats or material execution updates on Dubai/Osaka projects, because the stock is sensitive to short-term catalysts and Strip demand trends