With Liberation Day deadline approaching, Trump the dealmaker struggles to close

The Trump administration has largely failed to meet its ambitious '90 deals in 90 days' trade target, securing only three limited agreements by the July 9 deadline following initial April tariffs. This shortfall has prompted President Trump to threaten new tariffs up to 70% on non-compliant nations, risking escalating trade wars and supply chain disruption. While financial markets have remained relatively calm due to the U.S.-China détente, this persistent inability to secure broad concessions and the threat of unilateral action could trigger renewed volatility, particularly given the unpredictability of the administration's approach.

Analysis

The Trump administration's ambitious '90 deals in 90 days' trade initiative is poised to fall significantly short of its goal by the July 9 deadline, having secured only three limited agreements with Britain, Vietnam, and a temporary truce with China. This shortfall has prompted a threat from President Trump to unilaterally impose tariffs as high as 70% on non-compliant countries starting in August, creating a combustible situation that risks escalating retaliatory measures and disrupting global supply chains. Despite these underlying tensions, financial markets have rebounded to record highs since the initial tariff-induced sell-off in April, buoyed by the U.S.-China détente and strong domestic economic data. The primary risk to market stability, as highlighted by analysts, is not the failure to secure deals with partners like the EU or Japan, but the potential for renewed policy chaos and erratic reversals from the administration, which previously triggered market turmoil. Negotiations are hampered by what partners perceive as unbalanced demands, legal uncertainty surrounding the President's authority under the IEEPA, and the prospect of additional U.S. sectoral tariffs creating an unclear negotiating landscape.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor presidential communications and actions around and after the July 9 deadline, as market volatility is more likely to be triggered by erratic policy shifts and a 'perception of chaos' than by the failure to secure specific trade deals.
• Given the explicit threat of tariffs up to 70%, it is prudent to review and potentially hedge exposure to sectors and companies with significant supply chain dependencies on the European Union, Japan, and South Korea, where deals are deemed unlikely.
• Watch for signs of stress in the U.S. Treasury market, as a 'yippy' bond market was a key factor cited by the administration for reversing its tariff policy in April, making it a critical leading indicator of potential policy pivots.
• Be aware of potential future downside risk in the pharmaceutical, lumber, semiconductor, and copper sectors, as the article notes these industries are currently under investigation for potential Section 232 tariffs.