How to Invest in SpaceX Stock Before the Next Big Move

SpaceX shares closed at $145.30 on Friday, below the $150 opening level from its June 12 IPO (official IPO price $135). Despite expectations of $0.67 EPS next year, the article estimates a forward P/E around 217, arguing the stock remains overvalued and may still fall. The piece frames recent price action as a loss of momentum and potential shift toward fundamentals rather than speculative upside.

Analysis

The market is no longer treating this as a pure story asset; it is starting to enforce a cash-flow hurdle. That typically compresses multiples fastest in the most duration-sensitive corners of the tape: pre-profit space/launch names, other “category winner” IPOs, and any secondary market where insiders were leaning on scarcity pricing. The second-order effect is not the company itself as much as the fundraising window around it: if the first marquee public valuation deflates, late-stage private issuers lose pricing power and crossover funds become more selective over the next 1-3 months.

The bigger read-through is to speculative growth sentiment, not to the hard-tech leaders. A single high-profile de-rating usually causes a narrow cleanup in comparable names rather than a broad risk-off event, and the semis/AI complex should not be mechanically shorted off this headline. The real tell will be whether analysts have to cut forward earnings and growth assumptions again after the first post-IPO quarter; if that happens, the stock becomes a liquidity-and-expectations problem, not just a valuation problem.

Contrarian view: this may already be a crowded narrative. IPOs often trade down to issue price before establishing a base, so the move is not automatically a fundamental verdict. If the shares can hold above the first-day open and reclaim the broken momentum zone on volume, the bear thesis weakens materially; if they fail to regain that level after earnings or a secondary sale, the downside can extend quickly as early holders and new allocators both lose conviction.

Key Decisions for Investors

• If borrow is available, initiate a tactical short or put spread in SPCX on any rebound toward the $150-160 area; target 15-20% downside over 4-8 weeks, with a stop on a sustained close above $170.