UBS analysts project Apple Pay's US online transaction volumes will surpass PayPal's Branded Checkout in 2025 and beyond, driven by Apple's strategic expansion into desktop adoption across non-iOS browsers and anticipated increased merchant integration post-holiday season. Apple Pay already represented approximately 6% of the estimated $3.2 trillion US eCommerce market in 2024, totaling $205 billion, indicating a significant competitive shift in the digital payments sector. Apple shares rose 0.6% on the news.
UBS analysts project Apple Pay's US online transaction volumes will surpass PayPal's Branded Checkout starting in 2025, signaling a significant shift in the digital payments landscape. This anticipated growth is primarily attributed to Apple's strategic expansion into desktop adoption across non-iOS browsers and an expected increase in merchant integration post-holiday season. Apple Pay already captured approximately 6% of the estimated $3.2 trillion US eCommerce market in 2024, translating to $205 billion in volume. This expansion beyond its traditional mobile iOS user base to third-party desktop browsers significantly broadens its addressable market and competitive reach against established players. The move intensifies competition within the fintech sector, directly challenging PayPal's market share in online payments. While Apple Pay currently shows strong penetration in mobile retail segments, its desktop push is a direct assault on PayPal's core online checkout business. Apple shares reacted positively, rising 0.6% to $274.54 in midday trading following the analyst note.
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