Will American Express (AXP) Beat Estimates Again in Its Next Earnings Report?

American Express (AXP) is positioned for a continued streak of earnings beats, building on its history of surpassing analyst estimates with an average surprise of 2.92% over the last two quarters. This positive outlook is supported by AXP's current Zacks Earnings ESP of +0.04% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), a combination that historically predicts a positive earnings surprise nearly 70% of the time, ahead of its next report due on July 18, 2025.

Analysis

American Express (AXP) presents a mixed but potentially bullish short-term outlook ahead of its July 18, 2025 earnings report, based on quantitative predictive indicators. The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) combined with a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) of +0.04%. This specific combination has historically correlated with a positive earnings surprise nearly 70% of the time, suggesting analysts are becoming more optimistic and revising estimates upward closer to the release date. However, the supporting historical evidence provided in the article is contradictory. While it claims a consistent history of beats and an average surprise of 2.92% over two quarters, the data cited for the most recent quarter shows a miss, with reported earnings of $3.45 per share against an expectation of $3.64. This contrasts with the prior quarter's minor beat of $3.04 versus a $3.03 consensus. Therefore, while forward-looking analyst sentiment appears positive, the recent actual performance detailed in the report is less conclusive.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors with a bullish thesis on AXP could interpret the positive Earnings ESP of +0.04% as a tactical indicator for a potential upside surprise in the upcoming earnings announcement.
• It is critical to weigh the predictive power of the Zacks model against the contradictory historical data presented, specifically the recent earnings miss of $3.45 versus the $3.64 estimate, which weakens the narrative of a consistent beat-streak.
• Monitor revisions to the consensus estimate leading up to the July 18th report, as the market's ultimate reaction will depend on the actual reported figures and forward guidance, not just pre-earnings statistical indicators.