Should You Buy SpaceX Stock Below $125 per Share? Here's What History Says.

Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX-related entity) is still trading below its pre-IPO levels, and the article argues investors should be patient—lockup expirations for insiders occur at different times in 2026 and 2027, which could pressure supply/demand and weigh on the stock. It cites the stock’s first-year performance of roughly +16% and suggests the near-term setup may not justify buying under $125 per share before key demand-related events and further earnings clarity.

Analysis

SPCX looks more like a supply/positioning story than a clean fundamentals story over the next 6-18 months. Newly public names with staggered lockups usually trade on float scarcity first, then get repriced when the market realizes how much stock can still come to market; that dynamic tends to cap valuation until a few quarters of clean execution remove the “one good report could change everything” premium.

The bigger second-order effect is on the comp set: if investors insist on valuing SPCX off a consumer-tech-style narrative, they can overpay relative to aerospace/defense/industrial peers where cash conversion and backlog quality matter more than founder mythology. That creates a window where the stock can underperform even while the business is improving, because the multiple compresses from story-stock to industrial-quality rather than expanding toward software-like scarcity value.

Near term, the risk is that early enthusiasm was front-loaded and liquidity is thin, so any disappointment can force a sharper drawdown than fundamentals alone would justify. The main reversal catalysts are two consecutive beats with raised guidance, evidence that margins are not being bought with unsustainably high reinvestment, or a lockup expiration that passes without meaningful selling pressure. If those happen, the market can move from de-rating to accumulation quickly; if not, rallies are likely to be sold into for months.

Contrarian take: the consensus may be too focused on whether SPCX is the next TSLA and not focused enough on whether public-market supply will keep the stock cheap long enough to create a better entry later. The move looks more underdone on the downside than the upside in the next 1-2 quarters, but the structural thesis could flip if institutional demand absorbs float faster than expected.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid initiating a fresh long in SPCX until after the first 2-3 post-IPO earnings prints and the earliest lockup window; the expected edge is better after supply has been tested than before it.
• If borrow is available and liquidity is adequate, use a 3-6 month SPCX put spread into the next meaningful lockup window in 2026; the thesis is 20-30% downside from supply overhang with defined risk if execution stays clean.
• Set a watch alert on SPCX for two consecutive quarters of raised guidance and stable/expanding margins; that would falsify the de-rating thesis and force a rethink toward a long.
• Use price/volume behavior as the trigger, not narrative: if SPCX loses support on heavy turnover after earnings or insider selling, press the short-side view; if it holds lockup-related supply without damage, cover quickly.