NYC Casinos Could Become World’s Biggest, Bidders Predict

Bidders for New York City-area casino licenses are projecting substantial annual revenues, with proposals such as Manhattan's Freedom Plaza forecasting $2.2 billion in its first year rising to $4.2 billion by year ten, and Steve Cohen's Queens project targeting $3.9 billion annually by year three. These ambitious forecasts, submitted to the New York State Gaming Facility Location Board, suggest the potential for these to become some of the world's most lucrative resorts, though the report notes that developer projections are often optimistic.

Analysis

Bidders for the three available New York City-area casino licenses are presenting exceptionally strong revenue projections, signaling the potential creation of a major new gaming market. According to proposals submitted to the New York State Gaming Facility Location Board, the Freedom Plaza project in Manhattan is forecasted to generate $2.2 billion in its first year, scaling to $4.2 billion by its tenth year. Similarly, Steve Cohen's proposal near Citi Field in Queens projects an annual revenue of $3.9 billion by its third year of operation. These figures suggest that the winning projects could rank among the world's most profitable casino resorts. However, a critical element of caution is warranted, as the article notes that developer-provided forecasts are often optimistic, and these projections have not yet been independently verified or tested against market realities.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors with exposure to the gaming, leisure, and hospitality sectors should closely monitor the New York State Gaming Facility Location Board's selection process, as the license awards will be a major catalyst for the winning bidders and could disrupt the existing US Northeast gaming market.
• It is prudent to heavily discount the current revenue projections, as they are developer-originated and noted to be potentially optimistic; await third-party feasibility studies or state-level analyses before modeling these figures into valuations.
• Consider potential second-order beneficiaries, such as construction companies, hospitality REITs, and gaming technology suppliers, which could see significant business from the development of a multi-billion dollar resort, regardless of which bidder wins.