Fox News Poll: Trump’s tariffs faced broad disapproval even before Supreme Court ruling

A Fox News poll shows 63% of registered voters disapprove of President Trump's handling of tariffs (37% approve) and finds broad disapproval on the economy (59%) and inflation (65%), underscoring political resistance to his trade agenda after the Supreme Court curtailed it in a landmark tariff case. Despite the legal setback and waning public support, tariff collections have surged since his return to office—up more than 300% overall, with January duties of $30.4 billion (up 275% year-over-year) and $132.6 billion collected so far this fiscal year—raising questions about the policy's political durability amid cost-of-living pressures.

Analysis

Market structure: Higher tariffs have been a de facto tax on import-heavy sectors and a temporary subsidy to domestic basic-materials and heavy-industry producers (steel/aluminum). Expect short-term pricing power gains for producers like NUE/CLF and higher input costs and margin pressure for import-dependent retailers (TGT, WMT) and consumer discretionary firms; tariff revenue spikes ($132.6B YTD) are meaningful for cash flow but small vs $38T debt, so fiscal impact is limited and uncertain.

Risk assessment: Key tail risks include a Supreme Court or Congressional rollback of tariff authority (rapid reversal in sector returns), retaliatory foreign tariffs hitting US exporters (agribusiness, machinery), and politically driven tariff escalations. Timeline: immediate (days) — news-driven volatility; short-term (weeks–3 months) — legal rulings and trade negotiations; long-term (6–36 months) — potential reshoring/capex shifts in supply chains.

Trade implications: Favor short-term longs in domestic steel/metal producers and shorts in import-reliant retail/consumer names, with volatility hedges around court rulings. Cross-asset: commodity prices (steel, aluminum) should stay elevated if tariffs persist; FX may weaken the USD if growth/inflation soften; bond real yields could fall if tariffs curb growth — trade duration if legal outcome favors rollback.

Contrarian: Consensus underestimates speed of reversal if courts constrain tariff use — upside for retailers and downside for steel if tariffs are curtailed within 30–90 days. Historical parallels (trade skirmishes that reversed quickly) suggest positioning with tight stops and option hedges rather than outright buy-and-hold on tariff winners.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% portfolio long in domestic steel/materials: split between Nucor (NUE) and Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), 6–12 month horizon; set stop-loss at -12% and take-profit at +30%; reduce to flat if Supreme Court signals >50% probability of restricting tariff authority within 60 days.
• Implement a pair trade: 2% long NUE / 2% short Target (TGT) to capture relative margin resilience; reweight or close if retailer margins show sequential improvement >100bps or if tariffs are legally curtailed within 30–90 days.
• Buy a 3–6 month call spread on NUE (~5–10% OTM) sized to be ~0.5–1% of portfolio to limit premium outlay while capturing upside; hedge with a 3–6 month put spread on TGT (5–10% OTM) sized similarly to protect against headlines driving retail downside.
• Allocate 2–3% to macro hedges: long 7–10y TIPS (TIP) or IEF if tariff rollback risks reduce inflation breakevens — enter if market-implied tariff rollback probability exceeds 40% (measured by legal news sentiment/odds within 30 days); exit if CPI >3.5% YoY or tariffs are expanded materially.