Oppenheimer raises Blackstone stock price target on earnings results

Blackstone’s Q1 2026 results beat expectations, with EPS of $1.36 versus $1.34 consensus and revenue of $3.62 billion versus $3.41 billion expected. Oppenheimer raised its price target to $156 from $154 and reiterated Outperform, arguing the stock’s 5.7% selloff after earnings was not justified; Citizens also kept a Market Outperform rating with a $190 target. The company highlighted growth in secondaries, including $100 billion in AUM and $6 billion raised for its flagship fund in the quarter.

Analysis

The market is treating these two names very differently on a time horizon mismatch. INTC’s move is a classic multiple re-rating setup: if the print changed the probability of execution even modestly, the stock can move much more on sentiment than on near-term earnings power because positioning and narrative were already deeply skeptical. The risk is that this is still a show-me story; premarket gap strength after a low base often fades if management cannot convert one quarter into a durable foundry/AI roadmap over the next 2-3 quarters.

BX is a cleaner example of a fundamentally fine report getting dragged by factor contamination. The stock is being priced less on private-markets fundamentals and more on read-through fear around AI/software exposure and broader growth de-risking, which means the selloff can reverse quickly if the market stabilizes and the earnings-call narrative is digested. Second-order, that matters for the entire alternatives complex: if BX holds up after initial volatility, it can validate that fundraising/realization cycles are still intact despite rate and sentiment headwinds.

The contrarian read is that BX’s weakness may actually be the better risk/reward than INTC’s strength. INTC’s rally has to overcome years of credibility damage, capex intensity, and a high bar for sustained gross margin improvement, while BX only needs normalizing multiples and calmer risk appetite to reclaim lost ground. In other words, the right trade may be to fade the more emotionally compelling winner and accumulate the steadier compounder on weakness.

Catalysts are asymmetric by horizon: INTC’s next 1-4 weeks are about whether management can avoid a “one good print, no follow-through” tape, while BX’s next 1-3 months depend on fund-raising momentum and whether the market stops penalizing alternative managers for macro beta. If the broader market rotates back into quality growth, BX should recover faster than its recent tape implies; if semiconductor enthusiasm broadens, INTC can overshoot, but that requires real evidence, not just relief buying.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Take profits on any momentum-driven long INTC into strength over the next 1-3 sessions; keep only a starter position unless management re-anchors the bull case on margins and foundry utilization over the next 1-2 quarters.
• Buy BX on any follow-through weakness over the next 1-2 weeks; risk/reward favors a mean reversion trade back toward fair value once AI/software factor pressure fades. Use a tight stop if the broader market enters a risk-off regime.
• Pair trade: long BX / short a basket of high-multiple software exposures for 1-3 months to isolate the 'healthy alternative manager vs factor-contaminated software' divergence.
• For tactical upside, use call spreads in INTC rather than outright stock over 2-6 weeks; the implied move can be monetized, but the stock still carries execution risk and could give back a large portion of the gap if guidance is not self-confirming.
• If BX reclaims pre-selloff levels, trim 25-50% of the position; the easier money is the re-rating, not chasing a full durability re-underwrite.