3 Black Friday Stock Deals: More Than 40% Off in 2025

Three formerly high-flying names — The Trade Desk, Duolingo and Chipotle — have plunged roughly 45%–70% YTD, offering valuation entry points amid slowing growth. The Trade Desk (down ~70%) still posted revenue up ~20% through nine months and an 18% rise in the latest quarter, >95% customer retention, Q4 revenue guidance of at least +13% and is trading around 19x forward EPS. Duolingo (down ~46%) continues robust user growth (≈135 million MAUs) and back-to-back quarters of >41% revenue growth with 29% of premium mix in family accounts, trading ~23x forward earnings despite weaker bookings guidance. Chipotle (down ~45%) has delivered three quarters of single-digit revenue growth with negative domestic comps recently, plans ~10% store growth next year and sits at its lowest free-cash-flow multiple in 14 years, suggesting a potential multi-quarter turnaround opportunity.

Analysis

Market structure: TTD, DUOL and CMG weakness redistributes gains to platform incumbents and AI-infrastructure vendors while squeezing smaller adtech and weaker restaurant operators. TTD still shows ~18–20% revenue growth and >95% retention, implying market-share capture in programmatic CTV even as AMZN increases supply-side pressure; DUOL’s ~41% YoY growth and 135M MAU suggest durable demand for premium monetization, and CMG’s 10% planned unit growth is the primary lever to restore double-digit top-line. Equity flows favor defensive growth and cash-generative names; expect higher IV in growth options and modest tightening in IG credit as risk premia rise.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include antitrust scrutiny of AMZN/TTD relationships, AI-driven disintermediation of learning platforms, and a macro-driven drop in consumer spending hitting CMG comps. Near-term (days–weeks) volatility centers on quarterly guidance and Amazon product announcements; medium-term (3–12 months) risk is execution on TTD’s Kokai migration and DUOL’s bookings cadence; long-term (1–3 years) risk is structural ad mix shift away from open web. Hidden dependencies: DUOL bookings to WAU conversion, TTD client tech migration cadence, CMG labor/food-cost inflection points.

Trade implications: Favor asymmetric longs in TTD and DUOL sized to conviction with downside protection and staged entries; CMG is a value recovery candidate but needs confirmation of positive comps before scaling. Use pair strategies to express idiosyncratic views (long TTD vs limited AMZN ad exposure) and option structures (LEAP calls and put spreads) to buy time on reacceleration. Key catalysts: next 2–4 quarterly earnings, AMZN ad roadmap over next 3 months, DUOL product/AI releases over 6–12 months, CMG comp data over next two quarters.

Contrarian angles: The market likely over-penalized durable revenue streams — TTD priced for secular decline despite mid-teens forward P/E and improving margins, DUOL trading at ~23x forward for >40% growth, and CMG at multi-year low FCF multiples despite aggressive store growth. If bookings and Kokai adoption normalize within 2–4 quarters, these stocks can re-rate materially; conversely, over-investment in AI or lost top-tier ad relationships would flip the thesis quickly, so size and hedges must be disciplined.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% portfolio long position in TTD (buy shares) within the next 2–6 weeks; set a tactical stop-loss at -30% from entry and a 12–18 month target of +60–100% if quarterly revenue reaccelerates above 25% YoY or guidance is raised.
• Allocate 1.5–2% to DUOL via 9–15 month LEAP calls (~25–30% OTM) or buy shares if put at 10% OTM can be sold cash-secured; add only after bookings stabilize or MAU monetization steps up in the next two quarters.
• Stage a 1–2% long position in CMG (buy shares) in tranches: initial 0.5% now, add to 2% only after two consecutive quarters of positive same-store comps or improvement in AUV; maintain stop-loss at -20% if comps stay negative after next quarter.
• Implement a pair hedge: size 2% long TTD vs buy a 3-month AMZN put spread (10–15% OTM) sized to offset 30–50% of portfolio downside from sector-wide ad weakness; roll or close after AMZN announces new ad products or after TTD’s next earnings.
• Generate income while waiting: sell 10–12 week cash-secured puts on DUOL ~10% OTM, allocated to total notional of 0.5–1% portfolio, to collect premium and potentially acquire shares at a favorable basis if the thesis holds.