It’s time to end the world’s delusions over the Iran energy crisis

The U.S. and Israeli military campaign against Iran is marked by repeated miscalculations; the article warns the principal risk is misjudging the scale of any resulting energy crisis. Markets should focus on downside geopolitical risk to oil and commodity markets if disruptions occur, but avoid overestimating the likely magnitude of supply shocks. Investors may adopt a defensive posture in energy and regional EM exposure while monitoring sanctions and escalation pathways closely.

Analysis

The U.S. and Israeli military campaign against Iran is marked by repeated miscalculations; the article warns the principal risk is misjudging the scale of any resulting energy crisis. Markets should focus on downside geopolitical risk to oil and commodity markets if disruptions occur, but avoid overestimating the likely magnitude of supply shocks. Investors may adopt a defensive posture in energy and regional EM exposure while monitoring sanctions and escalation pathways closely.