SpaceX Stock Will Be Worth More Than Nvidia, According to Certain Wall Street Experts

SpaceX went public at $135 per share with an initial market value of about $1.77 trillion, making it the largest IPO in history and pricing at 92x sales. The article highlights highly speculative upside calls from Jim Cramer to $6 trillion and Ron Baron to $14 trillion, driven by a small public float, Nasdaq-100 eligibility, and potential orbital AI data centers. Despite the bullish long-term narratives, the author argues the stock is expensive and advises investors to wait for better entry opportunities.

Analysis

The immediate market dynamic is less about fundamentals and more about float mechanics: a tiny tradable supply against a broad index-eligibility bid can force a near-term scarcity premium. That sets up a reflexive move where passive and benchmark-sensitive buyers become price-insensitive, creating the possibility of gap moves that far exceed what business value alone would justify. The first-order winner is not necessarily the issuer’s operating business, but holders of adjacent AI/space/launch proxies that can capture the thematic flow without the same valuation air pocket.

The bigger second-order question is whether the orbital-AI narrative becomes a capital-allocation trap. If investors start underwriting distant compute economics too aggressively, the market may overcapitalize speculative infrastructure before proving launch cadence, thermal reliability, radiation tolerance, and on-orbit servicing economics. That risk is highest over the next 6-18 months, when sentiment can outrun technical milestones; it reverses quickly if deployment slips, launch losses spike, or terrestrial hyperscalers cut power and cooling costs faster than expected.

From a competitive lens, the implied threat is more acute for power-constrained data center enablers than for chip designers. If the market believes compute can migrate off-grid, utilities, grid equipment, and some liquid-cooling beneficiaries lose narrative support, while satellite connectivity, launch supply chain, and space-grade components gain optionality. The contrarian view is that the “everything” valuation embeds multiple future monopolies at once; any one missing leg — launch economics, satellite yield, or demand conversion — can collapse the whole story even if the long-term thesis remains directionally right.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid chasing the new issue in the first 1-3 weeks post-listing; wait for lockup-style supply overhangs and index-driven demand to wash through, then reassess only after a 20-30% pullback or a failed breakout.
• Relative-value long NVDA / short PLTR on a 1-3 month horizon: if AI capital rotates into speculative infrastructure, the higher-quality, cash-generative beneficiary should outperform the more crowded software narrative.
• Pair trade long INTC / short utility-heavy data-center enablers only if orbital compute rhetoric starts to pressure terrestrial power/cooling names; this is a slower-burn trade, best entered on confirmation of the narrative shift rather than day one.
• For upside participation with defined risk, buy 3-6 month call spreads on the issuer rather than common equity; the float-driven squeeze can produce convex upside, but the premium already discounts an aggressive future.
• Use any sharp post-IPO vertical move to short via puts or put spreads into the first major milestone miss; the highest-risk window for the stock is 6-18 months, when execution has to replace story.