The big AI New Year’s resolution for businesses in 2026: ROI

As 2026 begins, corporate leaders are shifting from experimental AI spending to demanding clear returns: Kyndryl’s Readiness Report (3,700 executives) finds 61% of CEOs feel increased pressure to show AI ROI, even as Gartner forecasts nearly $270 billion in AI application software spending by 2026 and firms report $590–$1,400 per-employee AI costs. The surge in infrastructure and tooling outlays is reviving cloud-era caution, driving C‑suite misalignment (three in four CEOs say short-term ROI pressure undermines long-term innovation; 65% report CFO misalignment) and forcing faster delivery cycles and new ROI metrics—illustrated by Asana’s formal financial and human-centered measurement approach. Vendors that provide AI observability and workflow-level measurement (e.g., Lanai) stand to benefit, but analysts cited expect only well-aligned “pacesetters” to realistically demonstrate widespread ROI in 2026.

Analysis

Corporate AI spending is shifting from open-ended experimentation to value verification as 2026 begins: Kyndryl’s Readiness Report (3,700 executives) finds 61% of CEOs feel increased pressure to show AI ROI, while Garner projects AI application-software spending to reach nearly $270 billion in 2026 and firms report AI costs of $590–$1,400 per employee. This surge in infrastructure and tooling spend is prompting executives to ask concrete questions about compute, data infrastructure and talent costs rather than accept flashy demos.

The pressure is creating measurable governance stress and repeat-risk from past large-scale transformations: nearly three in four CEOs say short-term ROI pressure undermines long-term innovation and 65% report misalignment with their CFO, while Kyndryl’s data show 95% of respondents would redo their cloud strategy. Examples include customers facing billion-dollar ERP-style carries and companies accelerating delivery cycles to four–six months to avoid “pilot purgatory.”

Operational responses favor firms that can quantify outcomes: Asana has instituted financial and human-centered ROI metrics and vendors like Lanai that provide AI observability and workflow-level measurement are likely to see demand. Analysts quoted expect only well-aligned “pacesetters” to demonstrate widespread ROI in 2026, leaving many enterprises exposed to cost overruns and slow payback.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Increase exposure to vendors that provide AI observability, workflow analytics, cost-control and measurement tools (companies analogous to Lanai) as corporates rush to quantify ROI
• Trim or avoid large enterprise software names that disclose heavy, unvalidated AI spend and show C-suite misalignment; prioritize management teams that publish time-to-value and pilot-to-production conversion metrics
• Engage portfolio companies to demand operational KPIs—per-employee AI spend, percentage of pilots with measurable ROI, and target time-to-value (4–6 months)—and reduce position size or hedge where these metrics are absent
• Position for dispersion: favor pacesetters with aligned CEO/CFO/CTO strategies and be prepared to rotate into laggards only after demonstrable ROI outcomes are reported