Trump's sensitivity to markets gives Iran leverage: BCA Research

Matt Gertken of BCA Research says there is no chance of a U.S. full-scale ground invasion of Iran, but mutual distrust means Iran's nuclear leverage is more crucial now. This lowers the near-term probability of large-scale military escalation while keeping an elevated geopolitical risk premium that can sustain volatility in energy and defense exposure and encourage risk-off positioning.

Analysis

Matt Gertken of BCA Research says there is no chance of a U.S. full-scale ground invasion of Iran, but mutual distrust means Iran's nuclear leverage is more crucial now. This lowers the near-term probability of large-scale military escalation while keeping an elevated geopolitical risk premium that can sustain volatility in energy and defense exposure and encourage risk-off positioning.