Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico Reports 2.9% Increase in May 2025 Passenger Traffic Compared to May 2024

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP) reported a 2.9% increase in total terminal passenger traffic across its 12 Mexican airports for May 2025 compared to May 2024, with Tijuana, Los Cabos, Puerto Vallarta, and Guadalajara showing increases of 3.4%, 1.1%, 0.9%, and 0.3% respectively. Domestic passenger traffic grew, particularly in Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta, while international traffic saw mixed results, and Montego Bay experienced a 1.6% decline. Despite an overall increase in passengers to approximately 5.17 million, load factors slightly decreased, and international passenger numbers at key airports suggest potential vulnerability to market fluctuations.

Analysis

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP) reported a 2.9% year-over-year increase in total terminal passenger traffic for May 2025 across its 12 Mexican airports, while overall traffic including its Jamaican operations grew by 2.6% to approximately 5.17 million passengers. This growth was primarily driven by a strong domestic segment in Mexico, which saw a 4.7% rise in passengers, highlighted by significant increases at airports like Puerto Vallarta (+11.2% domestic), Mexicali (+41.9% domestic), and Los Mochis (+19.8% domestic). Guadalajara also contributed with a 1.1% domestic passenger increase and a notable 9.8% year-to-date domestic growth. However, international passenger traffic across GAP's Mexican airports experienced a slight decline of 0.2%, with notable decreases at Guadalajara (-1.4% international) and Los Cabos (-9.1% international), though Tijuana posted a strong 7.9% increase in international passengers. Montego Bay airport continued to underperform, recording a 1.6% traffic decline. While available seats rose by 4.8% and new routes were introduced, overall load factors decreased from 82.8% in May 2024 to 81.1% in May 2025, suggesting capacity expansion is currently outpacing immediate demand absorption or reflecting pricing strategies. The data indicates a continued but uneven recovery, with domestic travel showing resilience while international segments and specific airports like Montego Bay present areas of concern.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should acknowledge the headline passenger growth but critically assess the divergence between robust domestic performance and the softness in international traffic, particularly the 0.2% decline in Mexican international passengers and the 1.6% drop at Montego Bay, alongside the decrease in overall load factors to 81.1%.
• Monitor upcoming traffic reports for trends in international passenger volumes at key airports such as Los Cabos and Guadalajara, and the turnaround potential for Montego Bay, as these are significant for GAP's revenue mix and profitability.
• Consider the impact of the 4.8% increase in seat capacity and new route additions on future load factors and yields, as sustained lower load factors could pressure unit revenues despite passenger volume growth.