Aurora Cannabis: Why I Like This Stock

ACB is increasingly behaving like a balance-sheet repair story rather than a pure operating turnaround, and that changes the competitive map. If the market starts valuing it as a de-risked cash-rich operator instead of a distressed equity dilution candidate, the main beneficiaries are likely to be the lowest-cost international exporters and any Canadian peers still trapped in financing overhangs; the losers are smaller operators that need external capital to survive. The key second-order effect is that a cleaner capital structure gives ACB more optionality on M&A and licensing assets, which can compress acquisition multiples across the sector if management can convert cash into incremental EBITDA without reintroducing dilution risk.

The market is probably underestimating how much of the rerating comes from reduced left-tail risk rather than growth. A company trading below tangible book with net cash can reprice quickly if the next 1-2 quarters confirm that margins are durable and cash burn is contained; that can happen well before FY27/FY28 EBITDA targets are reached. But the path is fragile: one operational miss, an ill-timed acquisition, or renewed equity issuance would likely wipe out the valuation support and send the stock back toward liquidation-style pricing.

The contrarian view is that the 6x forward EBITDA framing may already be generous if the market remains skeptical of the quality and convertibility of international revenue. Cannabis equities tend to overreact to any sign of capital discipline, then give back gains when execution slips; the right way to express this is to separate rerating from fundamental compounding. Near-term upside is most likely over months, not days, while the real risk is that the company uses improved balance-sheet optics to fund growth at mediocre returns, which would cap multiple expansion.

For investors, the trade is less about chasing the target price and more about owning the optionality into confirmation events. If those events fail to materialize by the next two reporting cycles, the stock can quickly revert to a book-value discount despite the current setup.