Bybit & Block Scholes Report: Crypto Reacted to US-Vietnam Trade Deal; BTC Brushed $110k

Bybit's recent crypto derivatives report, in collaboration with Block Scholes, details significant market movements following the July 2nd US-Vietnam tariff truce, which propelled Bitcoin above $110,000 and Ethereum past $2,500. BTC's implied volatility rebounded to 35% after briefly hitting a 2-year low of 26%, while ETH options consistently maintained roughly double BTC's implied volatility and saw a bullish skew shift. The report also noted unexpectedly negative SOL perpetual funding rates despite recent ETF approvals, underscoring divergent sentiment and unique dynamics across the crypto derivatives landscape.

Analysis

The cryptocurrency derivatives market experienced a significant shift driven by a macroeconomic catalyst, the U.S.-Vietnam tariff truce on July 2, which propelled BTC above $110,000 and ETH past $2,500. This event abruptly ended a period of unusual quiet in the BTC options market, where 7-day implied volatility had fallen to a two-year low of 26% on June 27, causing it to rebound to 35%. Ethereum demonstrated notable outperformance, with its 7-day at-the-money implied volatility remaining consistently at approximately double the levels of Bitcoin. Furthermore, ETH options sentiment underwent a dramatic bullish reversal, as the skew flipped from a -1.9% bias towards puts to a 1.3% premium for out-of-the-money calls. This suggests stronger conviction for continued upside in ETH among derivatives traders. An interesting market anomaly was observed in Solana, where perpetual funding rates turned negative despite positive news from ETF launch approvals, indicating potential underlying selling pressure or complex market positioning.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given Ethereum's significant outperformance and the strong bullish reversal in its options skew, investors may consider overweighting ETH relative to BTC to capitalize on its stronger upward momentum.
• The sharp rebound in Bitcoin's implied volatility from a two-year low suggests that complacency has ended, making long volatility strategies a potentially prudent way to position for continued market swings.
• Traders should closely monitor the divergence between fundamentals and derivatives pricing, such as the negative SOL funding rates, as these anomalies can signal underlying risks or structural market imbalances not reflected in headline news.