Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Traders Eye OPEC+ Meeting as Supply Risks Mount

WTI crude is holding near $65.36/barrel, propelled by geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions, notably attacks impacting 17% of Russian refining capacity and new sanctions, which outweigh weaker U.S. manufacturing data and a modest inventory draw; geopolitical risk is set to remain the primary driver as the upcoming OPEC+ meeting is not expected to alter output. Concurrently, natural gas is consolidating around $2.99, displaying a constructive technical setup with key support levels holding, suggesting a mild bullish bias.

Analysis

Energy markets are presently dominated by geopolitical supply risks, which are overriding concerns about weakening demand. Specifically, attacks impacting approximately 17% of Russian refining capacity, coupled with new shipping sanctions, have tightened the global supply outlook for crude oil. This has propelled WTI futures near $65.36 per barrel, with the market largely pricing in an unchanged output policy from the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. While a smaller-than-expected U.S. crude inventory draw and soft U.S. manufacturing data present headwinds, they are currently secondary drivers. The technical picture for crude is constructive; both WTI and Brent are trading above their 50-day and 200-day EMAs, which are acting as dynamic support. WTI is holding an ascending trendline with key resistance at $66.03, while Brent remains within an ascending channel, facing resistance at $69.27. Similarly, natural gas futures are consolidating near $2.99 in a mildly bullish structure, supported by an ascending trendline and a confluence of the 50-EMA and 200-EMA around $2.94-$2.95. Momentum indicators for both oil and gas, with RSI values in the 54-59 range, suggest balanced strength without being overbought, leaving potential for further upside if key resistance levels are breached.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given that geopolitical supply shocks are the primary price driver and technicals remain constructive, investors could maintain long positions in crude oil (USO, DBO, BNO), using the $64.30-$64.70 area for WTI as a key support zone to monitor for risk management.
• For natural gas (UNG), the technical support at the $2.92-$2.95 level appears robust, presenting a potential entry or accumulation zone for bullish positions, with an initial target at the $3.06 resistance level.
• Traders should watch for a decisive breakout with increased volume above key resistance levels ($66.03 for WTI, $69.27 for Brent) as a confirmation signal to initiate or add to long exposure, as current price action indicates some consolidation and hesitation.
• Despite the bullish supply narrative, investors must remain vigilant of macroeconomic indicators, as further deterioration in U.S. manufacturing or other demand signals could re-emerge as a significant headwind, capping the rally's potential.