Tariffs are the new normal, and now most CEOs expect the import taxes to outlast the Trump administration, PwC report finds

PwC found 86% of 633 U.S. executives now treat tariffs as a permanent planning assumption, underscoring an entrenched cost headwind for corporate margins and supply chains. A 15% global tariff imposed under Section 122 would expire July 24, while Section 301 tariffs remain in effect and refund processes for IEEPA levies are still being rolled out, with CBP saying distributions may take about 45 days after launch. Companies are also resorting to selling refund claims or pledging them as loan collateral to manage liquidity.

Analysis

The market is still underpricing the second-order effect of tariffs becoming a persistent balance-sheet item rather than a headline risk. Once management teams stop treating duties as temporary, the real earnings hit shifts from COGS to capital allocation: delayed capex, higher working capital, and more expensive inventory positioning. That tends to favor firms with pricing power, domestic sourcing, and short supply chains, while penalizing import-heavy brands that need frequent SKUs and low gross-margin buffers.

The more interesting opportunity is in the financing layer around tariff refund claims. If claims can be monetized or pledged, that creates a new asset class with bankruptcy-style recovery uncertainty: cash now at a steep discount versus a contingent receivable later. That should widen spreads for smaller importers and benefit specialty lenders, asset-based lenders, and distressed claim buyers who can underwrite legal/process risk better than operating companies can. Watch for a bifurcation between firms that can self-fund trade friction and those forced to monetize receivables at punitive terms.

The catalyst path is uneven: near term, any CBP refund rollout or partial approvals can produce a temporary liquidity pop for importers, but the bigger driver over months is whether tariff policy remains episodic or becomes embedded in baseline pricing. If tariffs persist for another two quarters, consensus will likely revise margins down again, especially in discretionary retail, autos, and industrials with offshore components. The contrarian read is that the current market may be too focused on refund optionality and not enough on the cumulative drag from inventory, financing, and delayed investment, which is usually where the real earnings compression shows up.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Short XRT or KR-style import-sensitive retail baskets vs long domestic-pricing-power retail/consumer staples over the next 1-3 months; best risk/reward is if tariff normalization forces another round of margin guidance cuts.
• Pair long regional banks with strong asset-based lending franchises (KEY, RF, PNC) against short lower-quality importers dependent on working-capital financing; benefit if tariff refund monetization drives borrowing demand and spread income.
• Buy put spreads on industrials with high imported-content exposure (DE, CAT, ETN) into the next earnings cycle; the setup is that tariff pass-through is lagged, while inventory and capex decisions hit immediately.
• Selective long on domestic supply-chain enablers and near-shoring beneficiaries (URI, CARR, PWR) for 3-6 months; these names can capture capex reallocation even if end-demand stays soft.
• Avoid chasing tariff-refund headlines; instead, wait for any rally in import-sensitive names to fade if management guidance does not show immediate cash conversion improvement.