'GTA VI' delay weighs on global videogame market growth, data shows

The global videogame market is projected to grow 3.4% to $188.9 billion in 2025, a marginal improvement from 2024's 3.2% growth, according to a Newzoo report. The delayed launch of Take-Two's 'Grand Theft Auto VI' and hardware price hikes are contributing to market uncertainty, though the game's eventual release in 2026, along with other premium titles and a PC version, is expected to boost growth through 2027. Concerns remain about slower hardware sales due to price increases on Xbox and PlayStation consoles, despite the strong performance of Nintendo's Switch 2.

Analysis

The global videogame market's growth trajectory has been re-evaluated, with Newzoo forecasting a marginal improvement to 3.4% growth in 2025, reaching $188.9 billion, compared to 3.2% growth in the preceding year. This tempered outlook, characterized by a mildly negative sentiment and prevailing uncertainty, is largely attributed to the postponement of Take-Two Interactive's highly anticipated "Grand Theft Auto VI" launch to 2026 and hardware price increases for Microsoft's Xbox and Sony's PlayStation, linked to tariffs, which are dampening consumer spending forecasts. Consequently, Newzoo has revised its compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) projection for the market downwards to 3.3% through 2027, from an earlier 3.7%. While the eventual 2026 release of "GTA VI," including its subsequent PC version, is anticipated to be a significant growth driver through 2027 alongside other premium titles such as Capcom's "Resident Evil Requiem," its immediate impact is deferred. Amid concerns over reduced console sales for major players, Nintendo's Switch 2 has achieved rapid sales success, and Microsoft is poised to enter the handheld market with its Xbox Ally, developed with ASUS, launching in holiday 2025.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should moderate near-term growth expectations for the videogame sector given the delayed major title releases and hardware pricing headwinds.
• Closely monitor Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) for execution on the pivotal 'Grand Theft Auto VI' launch now slated for 2026, which remains a key long-term catalyst.
• Scrutinize hardware sales figures for Microsoft (MSFT) and Sony (SONY) to gauge consumer elasticity to price increases, while noting the positive outlier performance of Nintendo hardware and the potential impact of new entrants like the Xbox Ally in late 2025.