Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Oil Pulls Back As Trump Says Negotiations Will Continue

Natural gas is under heavy pressure after the EIA showed a +61 Bcf weekly working-gas build, which exceeded expectations and pushed prices below $3.00–$3.05; a breakdown below $2.90 opens risk toward $2.75–$2.80. WTI oil is also softer as Trump said Iran asked to continue negotiations while the U.S. revoked an Iran oil sanctions waiver and raised the threat of a naval blockade, with traders watching Strait of Hormuz traffic after Iran attacked vessels. The article highlights technical levels: WTI support at $70.50–$71.00 (next $67.00–$67.50) and Brent support at $75.00 (next $72.00–$72.50).

Analysis

The market is pricing a cleaner unwind of geopolitical premium than the physical system likely warrants. In crude, the first move lower is tradeable, but the second-order question is whether shipping/insurance friction in the Strait of Hormuz keeps barrels effectively trapped even if headline diplomacy improves; that would cap the downside after an initial flush and create a sharp reversal risk if any vessel incident reappears. The cleaner near-term beneficiaries are domestic consumers of energy inputs, while upstream beta and oil-service names should see multiple compression if WTI cannot reclaim the low-$70s.

Natural gas looks more mechanically bearish than oil because storage is a slower-moving but more reliable signal for prompt balance. That usually hurts high-beta commodity proxies first, then weaker balance-sheet producers, while compression/service names can lag if the market starts to assume weaker drilling activity and lower utilization. The key risk is that weather-driven demand or a slowdown in injections can quickly neutralize the bearish setup once the prompt contract gets near the mid-$2.70s.

Contrarian view: the consensus may be overconfident that lower prices equal lower risk. If the de-escalation thesis is wrong and sanctions enforcement or maritime disruption intensify, crude can snap back quickly even without a full-blown war; meanwhile, gas may be oversold if power burn or LNG feedgas surprises to the upside. I’d treat this as a tactical momentum trade, not a structural call, until flow data and inventories confirm the price break.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Short USO on a 1-3 week horizon only if WTI holds below $70.50; better expression is a put spread targeting the $67-$67.50 zone, with a hard risk cut if WTI closes back above $73.
• Short UNG or buy UNG puts for a 2-6 week trade while spot gas is below $2.90; thesis fails if the next EIA prints narrow the storage surplus or if price reclaims $3.05.
• Do not force DJT as a tradeable expression here; the linkage to energy/geopolitics is too indirect. Use it only as a sentiment watchlist item, not a position.
• Consider a relative-value short XLE / long airline or transport basket for 1-3 months if crude stays sub-$71; oil-input relief should show up faster in margins than in energy-equity earnings revisions.
• Watch NGS as a lagging gas beta rather than a direct commodity hedge; if gas stays below $2.80 for multiple weeks, look for compression in names with higher spot-price sensitivity, but avoid sizing until activity data confirms weaker end-demand.