The Odds of a Fed Rate Hike Passed 50% This Weekend. Is the Trump and Warsh Honeymoon Over Already?

Polymarket odds of a 2026 Fed rate hike jumped to 62% over the weekend before easing to 54% by Monday morning, highlighting a sharp swing in rate expectations. The move reflects shifting sentiment around Federal Reserve policy rather than any direct policy action. While the article is brief and mostly factual, changes in Fed expectations can have broad market implications across rates, equities, and FX.

Analysis

Polymarket odds of a 2026 Fed rate hike jumped to 62% over the weekend before easing to 54% by Monday morning, highlighting a sharp swing in rate expectations. The move reflects shifting sentiment around Federal Reserve policy rather than any direct policy action. While the article is brief and mostly factual, changes in Fed expectations can have broad market implications across rates, equities, and FX.