Jefferies raises Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico price target to $290

Jefferies raised Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico's price target to $290 from $245 while keeping a Hold rating, implying modest upside from the current $246 share price. The company also reported Q4 2025 EBITDA of MXN5.1 billion, up 8% year over year but about 6% below FactSet consensus, with margin contraction of 315 bps to 64% due to higher maintenance, technical assistance, and concession costs. Operational disruption in Jamaica and security issues at Guadalajara add near-term headwinds, though PAC still offers a 4.6% dividend yield.

Analysis

PAC is being re-rated on asset quality and optionality, not on clean near-term earnings momentum. The market is likely underestimating how much of the value can be unlocked by better monetization of non-aero revenue at a time when passenger growth is slowing; that mix shift usually matters more for airport multiples than headline traffic. A higher target with a Hold is a signal that the street sees a path to fair value, but not a strong enough catalyst to justify chasing the stock after a move.

The second-order issue is that integration and expansion capex can pressure margins before they lift throughput, so this is a 2-4 quarter story rather than a next-month trade. If commercial execution disappoints or disruption in the network persists, the earnings quality problem can overwhelm the valuation support from the dividend. By contrast, if management proves it can offset lower traffic with better per-passenger yield, the stock could rerate toward the upper end of peer airport multiples.

GAP looks like the weaker leg because the market will discount any earnings miss that combines traffic softness, margin compression, and security-related operating friction. The bigger risk is that these are not isolated shocks: airports with exposure to regional disruption often see a lingering premium in insurance, maintenance, and security spending that compounds for several quarters. That makes the downside asymmetrical if investors start marking down the durability of cash flow rather than the single quarter result.

The contrarian angle is that the selloff may be overdone on the core airport business while underpricing the integration benefit at PAC and underpricing recurring operational drag at GAP. If the recent margin pressure is partly temporary, PAC should mean-revert faster than the market expects because high-margin commercial revenue has a large incremental contribution. Meanwhile, GAP’s multiple can stay compressed until there is evidence that disruption costs are contained, not just that passenger counts stabilize.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long PAC vs short GAP for 1-3 months: express relative quality in execution and margin resilience; target 8-12% spread widening if PAC’s commercial mix improves while GAP’s operating friction persists.
• Buy PAC on pullbacks below the current target-implied range with a 6-12 month horizon; upside is tied to non-aero revenue leverage and integration synergies, but size modestly because near-term earnings can still lag.
• Avoid initiating a fresh long in GAP until there is evidence of security-related cost normalization and margin stabilization; risk/reward is poor if operating expense inflation continues for another 1-2 quarters.
• For income-oriented accounts, consider PAC only as a covered-call candidate over the next 2-3 months: dividend support limits downside, but upside may be capped until the market sees post-integration proof.