Jim Cramer sees more upside for Goldman and addresses Wells Fargo's biggest question

Stocks rose Wednesday as a second favorable inflation print helped investors push a Fed hike further out: June PPI fell 0.3% (vs. expectations), aided by a sharp gas-price drop, after Tuesday’s cooler CPI. Apple gained 3% to trade above its $317 record close as Cramer argued Apple is absorbing higher memory costs while maintaining strong margins, despite KeyBanc’s downgrade to sell. Wells Fargo rose 2% after a previously solid quarter, though Cramer highlighted that net interest income was “a tad light” and questioned whether CEO Charlie Scharf can change the narrative; Goldman also rallied on strong investment-banking results. The main upside risk is oil—prices are rising again amid U.S.-Iran airstrikes and a reimposed naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysis

The near-term winner from softer inflation is less about the macro tape and more about duration-sensitive earnings streams: higher-multiple cash flow names and capital-markets franchises should get the cleanest multiple support if the market keeps pricing “no hike” and eventually a gentler path for real rates. That favors GS and, to a lesser extent, BLK/MS via stronger risk assets and better transaction appetite, while WFC’s lower-rate sensitivity is more of a mix issue because NII leverage gets capped if the curve bull-flattens.

AAPL is the most interesting idiosyncratic setup because it can absorb input-cost pressure longer than peers without visible margin damage, which creates optionality on pricing power into the next product cycle. The market is likely underestimating how much of the upside comes from mix and ecosystem stickiness rather than unit growth; if consumers accept price increases, the operating leverage can surprise even if demand is merely stable. The counterpoint is that the equity is now trading against perfection, so any sign that higher prices are pulling forward replacement or depressing emerging-market demand would hit both the multiple and the narrative.

The contrarian risk is that the current disinflation impulse may be a short-lived energy artifact rather than a durable trend: if oil re-prices higher on geopolitical escalation, the market can unwind the rate-cut optimism quickly. That would hit rate-sensitive financials first through a sharper move in yields/curve shape, but it would also pressure consumer purchasing power and make the AAPL price-hike debate more relevant. Time horizon matters: this is a days-to-weeks tape trade unless the energy shock persists long enough to change Q3 guidance and Fed expectations.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long GS vs. short WFC for 1-3 months: expresses capital-markets beta over NII sensitivity; thesis breaks if the 2s10s curve steepens or underwriting activity stalls.
• Add AAPL on any post-open dip, targeting a 1-2 quarter horizon: upside comes from pricing power and margin resilience, but trim if channel checks show demand elasticity or iPhone upgrade weakness.
• Small tactical long BLK / MS basket into a lower-yield environment: benefit comes from higher AUM marks and improved capital-markets sentiment; reduce if geopolitical oil headlines push yields back up.
• Watch-only alert on WFC if 10Y yields fall another 20-30 bps without a parallel pickup in fee income: that is a bearish mix shift for NII and would favor staying underweight the banks with the most spread income.
• If oil headlines re-accelerate and inflation breakevens turn up, fade the rate-sensitive leg first: use GS long exposure as the cleaner hedge versus more NII-dependent financials.