SpaceX valuation now at over $2 trillion as stock climbs to $165 a share: Live updates from the IPO debut

SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 a share for 555.6 million shares, valuing the company at $1.77 trillion and making it the largest IPO in stock market history. The stock opened just above $150 and traded around $162-$165 by noon, implying gains of about 13% versus the offer price and lifting Musk’s net worth above $1 trillion. The deal drew more than $250 billion in orders, though the article flags valuation risk, a $4.9 billion 2025 net loss, and concern around the grounded Starship program.

Analysis

The first-order winner is Nasdaq, but the bigger tradeable implication is that passive and benchmarked capital now has to find a way into a very concentrated, liquidity-sensitive name with no earnings anchor. That creates a short-lived technical bid for the venue ecosystem and the bankers, but also raises the probability of a reflexive post-listing air pocket once forced demand clears and the marginal buyer has to justify a 90x+ revenue multiple without a profitability path. In other words: the listing is less a valuation event than a flow event, and flow events usually decay faster than fundamentals.

For Tesla, the signal is more subtle than a direct competitive read-through. A public SpaceX introduces a liquid market price for Musk’s empire at a time when investors already struggle to separate Tesla’s auto multiple from its optionality premium; that makes TSLA more vulnerable to sum-of-the-parts arguments and to capital allocation scrutiny if SpaceX becomes the new preferred “Musk growth” vehicle. Over time, a publicly valued SpaceX also gives Musk a cleaner currency for talent retention, acquisitions, and employee liquidity, which can siphon some of the scarcity premium out of Tesla and compress its multiple if growth delivery remains uneven.

The underwriting banks gain near-term economics and franchise halo, but the medium-term risk is reputational: if the stock trades weak after the IPO, it reinforces the view that the largest public offerings are distribution events rather than value-creation events. Morningstar’s bearish anchor is probably directionally right on timing even if not on long-term optionality: the market is likely overpaying for out-year Mars/Starship economics while underestimating the very real near-term gating item, which is execution on launch cadence and regulatory clearance. That makes the next few weeks a better window for mean reversion than the debut print itself.

The contrarian miss is that the scarcity premium may be supported longer than skeptics expect because the stock is small relative to total demand and will be rapidly indexed. If inclusion comes as early as two weeks, retail and passive flows could keep the tape bid long enough to squeeze shorts before fundamentals matter, making this more dangerous to fade immediately than after the first index rebalance date.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Short NDAQ on any post-debut strength over the next 5-10 trading days; expect the venue/underwriting halo to fade once the one-time fee and publicity benefit are priced in. Risk/reward: modest downside, but clean if first-day enthusiasm reverses.
• Buy TSLA puts or structure a put spread expiring in 1-3 months; thesis is that a public SpaceX increases scrutiny on Musk’s capital allocation and weakens Tesla’s scarcity premium. Best entry is after the initial SpaceX squeeze subsides.
• Fade MORN on rallies over the next 2-4 weeks; the market is likely paying for a bearish anchor that will not participate in index-driven momentum, while the debate around fair value gets drowned out by flow. Use tight stops because it can underperform mechanically if growth IPO sentiment persists.
• Long GS/MS/BAC/C/JPM as a basket for 1-2 weeks around the deal close and first trading window, but trim quickly into strength; the immediate benefit is fee capture and league-table optics, not durable multiple expansion. Think event-driven, not secular.
• If borrowing is available, pair long NDAQ / short MORN for 1 month: long the direct flow beneficiary, short the valuation skeptic. This isolates sentiment dispersion and reduces market beta.