Is There More Downside For SpaceX Stock?

SpaceX has fallen 30% in three trading days, yet the article argues the stock still trades at about 100x trailing revenue and nearly 200x trailing EBITDA. It highlights upcoming insider unlocks totaling as much as 44% of shares by early September, plus competitive pressure from expected trillion-dollar OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs and higher-rate risks from rising CPI at 4.2% in May. The piece concludes the current valuation assumes flawless execution, with a DCF fair value cited at about $79 per share.

Analysis

The selloff is likely the first phase of a larger de-rating rather than the end of it. In the near term, the market is pricing a single narrative shock; over the next 4-8 weeks, the more important driver is supply overhang from staged unlocks into a stock that already trades as if execution risk is zero. That creates a classic path-dependent setup: even modest insider selling can overwhelm a thin float and force fundamental buyers to step back until the post-unlock base is established.

The second-order effect is capital reallocation, not just pressure on the name itself. If marquee private-market growth capital rotates toward the next wave of AI IPOs, risk budgets for other long-duration assets tighten, especially companies with ambiguous profitability horizons. That matters for adjacent public comps because it raises the hurdle rate for every pre-EBITDA growth asset; names like UBER are less exposed due to cash generation, while RDW and RKLB remain vulnerable to multiple compression if investors demand nearer-term monetization.

The main contrarian risk is that the drawdown becomes a catalyst for insiders to stagger sales more slowly than feared, reducing the immediate supply shock. But that only limits downside if growth sentiment stabilizes and rates stop rising; otherwise, the valuation anchor keeps drifting lower as discount rates move against a cash-flow profile that is heavily back-end loaded. In that regime, the stock can overshoot fair value on the downside because there is no obvious near-term fundamental inflection to defend the multiple.

The cleanest setup is to fade strength into unlock windows rather than chase the move lower immediately. The opportunity is not a rapid collapse to intrinsic value, but a series of supply-driven lower highs over the next 1-3 months, with any bounce likely capped by the coming issuance schedule and competing IPO headlines. If rates back up again, the duration trade worsens quickly; if they fall, the squeeze risk rises, but that would likely require macro relief broad enough to lift the whole growth complex.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Short into unlock-related rallies over the next 2-6 weeks; use tight risk around a post-selloff consolidation break because the trade works best as a supply-overhang fade, not a momentum short.
• Buy put spreads on the stock/primary vehicle with 1-3 month expiry to express downside into the August-September unlock window; target a 2:1 to 3:1 payoff if the market starts discounting incremental insider supply.
• Relative-value pair: long UBER / short the highest-duration growth basket implied by this tape; UBER has better cash generation and less dependence on distant terminal value, so it should hold up better if discount rates stay elevated.
• For public comps RDW and RKLB, avoid adding ahead of major private-market IPO headlines; if growth multiples compress broadly, these names can re-rate even without company-specific news.
• Set a covering trigger only if the stock reclaims pre-selloff levels on materially higher volume and rates roll over; otherwise maintain bearish exposure through the first two unlock dates.