Six Years Late, Apple's Foldable iPhone Could Still Flip Everything

JPMorgan forecasts Apple's anticipated 2026 foldable iPhone could generate $65 billion in revenue and deliver high-single-digit EPS gains by 2029. Despite Samsung's six-year head start, Apple's entry is expected to significantly expand the currently niche foldable market, with JPMorgan projecting 10-15 million unit sales in 2027, scaling to 45 million by 2029, driven by Apple's strong ecosystem and user loyalty. This market entry could redefine dynamics and benefit suppliers like Amphenol and Corning.

Analysis

According to a JPMorgan forecast, Apple's potential entry into the foldable smartphone market in 2026 represents a significant long-term growth vector. The firm projects this could unlock a $65 billion revenue stream and deliver high-single-digit EPS accretion for Apple by 2029. Despite Samsung's current 56% market share and six-year head start, Apple's entry is positioned as a catalyst that could mainstream the entire segment, which currently accounts for only 1.5% of global smartphone sales. JPMorgan's forecast of 10-15 million units in the first full year (2027), scaling to 45 million by 2029, suggests Apple could rapidly rival and surpass Samsung's current volume of approximately 10 million units shipped in 2024. This growth is predicated on Apple's history of successfully entering established markets late, its strong ecosystem, and its loyal user base, with projections indicating half of early buyers could be Android switchers. The analysis also identifies key suppliers like Amphenol (APH) and Corning (GLW) as potential beneficiaries from the increased hardware content required for these devices.

Key Decisions for Investors

• For long-term Apple investors, this forecast introduces a substantial, multi-year growth catalyst that could drive revenue and earnings beyond the existing iPhone cycle, justifying a bullish outlook if the 2026 launch timeline holds.
• Investors with exposure to Samsung should treat Apple's potential entry as a significant competitive threat that could erode market share and compress margins in the premium foldable category post-2026.
• Consider evaluating positions in key component suppliers like Amphenol (APH) and Corning (GLW), as they stand to benefit directly from the high-volume production of a new, complex Apple device.
• While the launch is several years away, monitor supply chain chatter and pre-production reports for validation of this thesis, as the market may begin to price in this growth opportunity well ahead of the official launch.