Q3 Energy Earnings: 4 Stocks That Could Surpass Forecasts

The Q3 2025 energy earnings season is demonstrating unexpected resilience, with many companies exceeding forecasts despite a year-over-year decline in WTI crude prices. This stronger-than-feared performance is primarily driven by significantly higher natural gas prices and disciplined cost controls, which have largely offset the weaker crude environment. Although the sector's overall bottom line is projected to decrease by 4.9% from Q3 2024, revenues are expected to inch up 1%, with a high percentage of reporting firms beating estimates. The article highlights Canadian Natural Resources, Delek US Holdings, Calumet Specialty Products Partners, and Northern Oil and Gas as potential outperformers based on their Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank.

Analysis

The Q3 2025 energy earnings season is demonstrating unexpected resilience, with many companies exceeding forecasts despite a significant year-over-year decline in WTI crude prices. Average WTI crude prices for July-September 2025 ranged from $63.96 to $68.39 per barrel, notably lower than the $70.24 to $81.80 range in the comparable 2024 period. This stronger-than-feared performance is primarily driven by substantially higher natural gas prices, with U.S. Henry Hub averages rising to $2.91-$3.20 in Q3 2025 from $1.99-$2.28 in Q3 2024, alongside disciplined cost controls.

While the sector's overall bottom line is projected to decline by 4.9% year-over-year for Q3 2025, revenues are expected to increase by 1%. Encouragingly, nearly 78% of reporting companies have exceeded both earnings and revenue estimates, indicating a broadly strong earnings season for those able to leverage natural gas strength or operational efficiency. This contrasts with initial analyst caution regarding falling oil prices.

Specific companies identified as potential outperformers, based on positive Earnings ESP and favorable Zacks Ranks, include Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ, ESP +1.55%, Zacks #2), Delek US Holdings (DK, ESP +98.57%, Zacks #3), and Northern Oil and Gas (NOG, ESP +1.83%, Zacks #3). While Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT, ESP +29.48%, Zacks #3) is also highlighted, its historical average earnings surprise of -104.8% suggests caution despite its positive ESP. This methodology generally indicates a 70% chance of positive earnings surprise for such combinations.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should prioritize energy companies demonstrating strong natural gas exposure and effective cost management, as these factors are mitigating the impact of lower crude prices.
• Consider firms like CNQ, DK, and NOG, which exhibit positive Earnings ESP and favorable Zacks Ranks, suggesting a higher likelihood of earnings beats.
• Exercise caution with companies like CLMT, despite positive ESP, given its historical negative earnings surprise performance, and monitor upcoming earnings announcements for these specific firms for potential post-announcement price reactions.