Trading expert sets date when SpaceX stock will drop to $100

TradingShot sees SpaceX falling as low as $100 by mid-August 2026, versus about $154 currently, implying roughly 35% downside. The stock has already dropped more than 28% from its June 16 high of $225 and broke below a key 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, with next support at $150 and a longer-term accumulation zone between $135 and $113. The bearish technical view comes amid post-IPO selling pressure, dilution concerns, and upcoming lockup expirations that could add supply.

Analysis

The important signal here is not just post-IPO volatility; it is the market discovering where marginal supply clears once the initial scarcity premium fades. For a newly public asset with a large insider-overhang calendar, technical breaks often become self-fulfilling because every weak tape invites systematic de-risking, while early holders are incentivized to monetize into strength. That creates a feedback loop where headline valuation debate matters less than the path of least resistance for flows over the next 4-8 weeks.

The first-order downside is likely concentrated around the next liquidity events, but the second-order effect is broader: if the stock keeps leaking lower, it can impair the company’s own acquisition currency and raise the cost of future capital at exactly the moment it wants to signal optionality around AI, launch infrastructure, and adjacent bets. A lower equity base also makes any debt issuance look more defensive than strategic, which can widen spreads and pressure the narrative that cash generation is currently sufficient to fund everything internally.

The key contrarian point is that the most bearish technical targets may be less useful than the behavioral anchor around the IPO price range. That zone often acts as a magnet because early allocators, employees, and new institutional buyers all view it as a psychologically “fair” reset; if price approaches that band quickly, the selloff can exhaust itself before reaching the deeper extension. In other words, the trade is more likely a sharp drawdown followed by a tradable stabilization than a straight-line collapse, unless upcoming lockup-related supply lands into a weak tape.

From a portfolio perspective, this is a high-volatility, event-driven short rather than a structural short until the lockup/earnings window is resolved. The best risk-reward likely comes from expressing bearishness via defined-risk structures into strength, not outright shorting after a multi-day decline has already occurred.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid chasing an outright short here; wait for either a bounce into the prior breakdown zone or a failed retest near the IPO-price area before initiating bearish exposure. Best setup is 2-6 weeks, not same-day momentum.
• Use put spreads rather than naked shorts: buy 1-2 month downside exposure targeting the 135-150 area with strikes just above the likely liquidity shelf. This caps carry if the stock mean-reverts while preserving convexity if lockup supply accelerates the move.
• If shares trade back above the broken retracement level on declining volume, fade the move with a tactical short or short-dated puts; risk/reward improves because it likely signals distribution rather than trend reversal.
• Pair trade idea: long cash-generative mega-cap tech or launch/service beneficiaries against a smaller position short SPCX to isolate sentiment compression. This reduces market beta and expresses the view that valuation normalization will happen faster than fundamental re-rating.
• Set a take-profit/cover zone around the IPO anchor area; if price stabilizes there, cover most bearish exposure. The best case for shorts is a liquidity air-pocket into that zone, but odds of a deeper flush drop materially once that first major support is tested.