Trading expert sets date when Nvidia stock will crash to $165

A TradingShot technical setup for Nvidia (NVDA) points to a potential drop of about $165 by late August 2026, tied to a weekly ascending-triangle fractal that historically preceded a bearish move. The stock is rebounding, up >2% to around $200, with the near-term pause framed as a retest of moving-average support; a break below $165 could open the way to further downside toward the 200-period MA. This technical risk contrasts with fundamentals—latest-quarter revenue +85% YoY and adjusted EPS +139%, and FY2026 revenue $215.9B (+65%)—but the article’s price-path outlook remains cautious.

Analysis

This is more a positioning event than a fundamental one. If the stock loses the 200 area, the first-order damage is to crowded AI beta: NVDA-heavy baskets, semis, and any factor sleeve that used the name as the liquid expression of the AI trade. The second-order effect is counterintuitive: hyperscalers and large software platforms could trade relatively better if the market starts pricing a less capex-intense AI path, because lower GPU enthusiasm can reduce fears of perpetual spend inflation and protect free-cash-flow multiples.

The key time horizon is 1-3 months, not days. A weekly close above 230 would likely force systematic covering and invalidate the bearish setup; below 200, a drift to 165 is plausible as a flow-driven move even without any deterioration in demand. What would actually break the bearish case is an upward revision to Blackwell ramp assumptions, stronger data-center order commentary, or a broader AI capex read-through from hyperscaler earnings.

Contrarian take: the consensus is underestimating how often top-tier fundamentals can coexist with a multi-week valuation reset when ownership is crowded and expectations are already heroic. That said, 165 looks less like a collapse target and more like a reset zone where long-only capital can re-enter with better risk/reward. In other words, the trade is not to fight the business, but to respect the tape until it proves the buyers are back.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Do not add to NVDA on the current bounce; wait for either a weekly close back above $230 to invalidate the bearish setup or a weekly failure below $200 to confirm downside momentum.
• If $200 fails, buy a 1-3 month NVDA put spread centered around $190/$165 for a defined-risk expression of the move toward the first major support zone; cover if NVDA reclaims $230 on a weekly close.
• For existing AI-beta exposure, hedge with a temporary SMH or SOXX short against long-only semiconductor books; the objective is to neutralize factor risk, not express a strong outright semiconductor view.
• Use a flush toward $165 as the better contrarian long entry point for NVDA, ideally via a 6-12 month call spread rather than stock, to avoid paying full valuation for a name that can still de-rate in the interim.
• Set an event-driven alert around next hyperscaler capex commentary and NVDA guide revisions; any upward surprise in data-center spend or margin outlook is the cleanest falsifier for the downside thesis.