Invitation to presentation of Alleima’s Q4 interim and full year report 2025

Alleima will publish its Q4 and full-year 2025 results on Tuesday, January 27, 2026 (approx. 11:30 am CET) and will host a webcast and conference call for investors and analysts at 1:00 pm CET presented by CEO Göran Björkman and CFO Johan Eriksson; dial-in and webcast details are available on the company investor site. The notice contains no operating or financial figures for 2025, but reiterates company context: ~6,500 employees and roughly 20 billion SEK revenue in 2024, listed on Nasdaq Stockholm under ticker ALLEI; market participants should await the report and call for earnings, guidance and any capital-allocation updates.

Analysis

Market structure: Alleima (ticker ALLEI) is a direct beneficiary of any positive read-through in specialty stainless, aerospace alloys, hydrogen/fuel‑cell coated strip and industrial heating segments; commodity stainless producers would be relatively worse off if Alleima can grow higher‑margin niche sales. The firm’s vertically integrated model and 900+ alloy recipes imply pricing power versus commodity mills, so an earnings beat could translate into a sustained 100–300bp gross‑margin premium. Cross‑asset: a positive surprise tends to tighten Alleima credit spreads and lift SEK modestly vs EUR/SEK by 0.5–1% and can push nickel/Cr micro‑spreads tighter; equity options IV will spike into Jan 27 and normalize within 3–7 trading days.

Risk assessment: Key tail risks are a sudden raw‑material shock (nickel/Cr up >20% in 30 days), a major plant disruption, or lost large OEM contracts — each could wipe 20–40% of near‑term EBITDA. Immediate (days): elevated event volatility around Jan 27; short (weeks): order/backlog revisions; long (quarters/years): secular demand from hydrogen/fuel cells and aerospace supply‑chain reshoring. Hidden dependencies include customer concentration (large OEMs) and input metals hedge effectiveness; catalysts are backlog disclosures, margin guidance and contract wins/losses.

Trade implications: Near‑term, earnings event creates a clear volatility trade: buy ALLEI stock if IV‑implied move <6% or buy an ATM straddle if expecting >6% realized move; consider a 2–3% portfolio long position on fundamental conviction and a 0.5% straddle ticket size on options. Relative value: long ALLEI vs short APAM (Aperam) captures specialty vs commodity divergence — target a mean reversion horizon of 6–12 months and a 200–400bp relative margin capture.

Contrarian angles: Consensus may pigeonhole Alleima as cyclical; that understates structural exposure to hydrogen/fuel cells and medical ultra‑fine wires which can drive mid‑single‑digit organic growth and margin expansion over 2–3 years. Reaction to a modest miss could be overdone — a >10% post‑print selloff could be a buying opportunity if backlog/guidance remain intact; conversely, falling input prices could signal demand weakening, not just margin tailwind.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in ALLEI (Alleima) starting 2–5 trading days before the Jan 27, 2026 report only if options‑implied move is <6%; set stop‑loss to trim at a 10% intra‑trade loss and target 12–25% upside over 3–6 months on a confirmed beat/guidance upgrade.
• If expecting a binary surprise, buy an ATM straddle on ALLEI expiring Feb 5, 2026 sized to 0.5% of capital if IV implies <8% move; if IV >10% consider selling an iron‑condor with 3–5% wings (size small, 0.25% capital) to collect premium.
• Implement a pair trade: long ALLEI 2% weight and short APAM (Aperam) 2% weight to express specialty alloy outperformance vs commodity stainless; plan to exit on either 5% relative spread compression or at 12 months.
• Buy 30‑day protective puts covering 50% of any new ALLEI position with strike ~8% OTM (size ~0.5–1% capital) as hedge; monitor LME nickel for moves >15% in 30 days — such moves mandate re‑pricing or hedging of positions.