3 Stocks to Buy Before SpaceX Goes Public

SpaceX’s expected June 12 IPO could value the company at $1.7 trillion to $2 trillion, igniting investor interest across the space sector. Rocket Lab, Redwire, and Linde are highlighted as beneficiaries: Rocket Lab posted Q1 revenue of $200 million, up 63% year over year, with a $2 billion backlog; Redwire reported $97 million in Q1 revenue, up 58%, and guided to $450 million-$500 million full-year revenue; Linde is building a $100 million air separation plant near Starbase to supply liquid oxygen and nitrogen for rocket launches. The article is constructive for space-related equities, though it is primarily thematic commentary rather than a direct company-specific catalyst.

Analysis

The market is likely pricing the SpaceX IPO as a broad-sector re-rating, but the first-order winners are not the most obvious “pure plays” — they’re the bottleneck providers whose revenue scales with launch cadence rather than valuation headlines. That argues for a barbell between high-beta enablers and stable picks-and-shovels: the former can rerate on sentiment, while the latter monetizes real volume growth without needing execution miracles. The bigger second-order effect is that a flagship SpaceX listing could compress the time investors are willing to wait for profitability across the whole space stack, rewarding names with visible backlog conversion and punishing story stocks that cannot show operating leverage within 2-3 quarters.

Rocket Lab’s setup is strongest if Neutron stays on schedule, but that is also the key fragility: the stock’s current multiple implicitly assumes the company transitions from niche launcher to credible medium-lift platform before the market loses patience. If there is any slip, the market will likely re-price the name not on TAM but on cash burn and competitive intensity, especially as larger aerospace primes can lean into pricing and contract bundling. The asymmetry is attractive, but only while the launch cadence narrative stays intact.

Redwire is the more interesting tactical long because it sits in the “swarm of contracts” part of the value chain where any incremental government or defense award creates option value, yet the market has not fully capitalized the scale-up path. That said, the balance sheet and loss profile mean the equity can underperform sharply if sentiment shifts from growth to proof-of-profitability. Linde is the quiet beneficiary: its edge is not space exposure per se, but being a local capacity constraint solver in a market where gas logistics matter more as launch frequency rises; that makes the investment case less about beta and more about lock-in, pricing power, and contract stickiness.

The contrarian view is that the SpaceX IPO may actually be a near-term sentiment headwind for the smaller names once investors see how wide the gap is between the category leader and the rest of the field. If SpaceX’s valuation anchors public comps too high, the market may initially reward the ecosystem, then quickly discriminate against lower-quality operators that cannot match the leader’s capital efficiency. In that scenario, the trade is not to buy the whole basket, but to own the names with either real scarcity value or durable infrastructure economics.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long RDW into the next 1-2 earnings cycles; use it as the highest-beta way to express defense/space backlog growth, but size small and trim if the stock rerates ahead of visible margin improvement.
• Long LIN as a 12-month compounder; expect lower upside than pure plays, but better risk-adjusted returns because aerospace demand can support incremental pricing without execution dependency.
• Buy RKLB only on pullbacks or via call spreads into Neutron milestone dates; the trade works best if launch timing stays intact, but the downside is sharp if schedule slips by even one quarter.
• Pair trade: long LIN / short a basket of weaker unprofitable space names if SpaceX IPO enthusiasm widens; this captures the likely post-IPO quality dispersion while limiting sector risk.
• For more tactical exposure, consider RDW Jan-2027 call spreads rather than stock; the thesis is contract optionality over 12-18 months, and defined risk is preferable given balance-sheet volatility.