Texas 2026 Primary Poll: Talarico & Paxton with Narrow Edges in Senate Primaries

An Emerson College/Nexstar poll (Feb. 26-27, 2026) of likely Texas primary voters finds State Rep. James Talarico leading Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary 52% to 47% (n=850, ±3.3%), with shifts since January of +5 and +9 points respectively and notable demographic splits. In the Republican primary Attorney General Ken Paxton leads Sen. John Cornyn 40% to 36% with Rep. Wesley Hunt at 17% (n=547, ±4.1%); both Paxton and Cornyn remain below 50%—raising the likelihood of a runoff—with divergent early vs. Election Day support and sizable movement among demographic and 2024 voter subgroups.

Analysis

Market structure: A likely Paxton–Cornyn runoff (May) increases short-term demand for local Texas ad inventory, favoring broadcasters — especially Nexstar (NXST) — with a plausible 5–15% uplift in Texas spot CPMs and a 1–3% bump to national political ad revenue for large broadcasters over the runoff quarter. Digital platforms see modest headwinds for high‑value, short‑duration political dollars but retain structural share for targeted buys; implied volatility in NXST options could rise 15–30% into May as guidance risk concentrates.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a surprise outright (>50%) primary winner (no runoff) which would evaporate the incremental ad pool within days, or a major scandal/regulatory event that nationalizes the race and shifts buys to national cable/online (days–weeks). Short-term (days–weeks) drivers are FEC/AdIntel weekly buy prints and final vote counts (early vs Election Day); medium/long-term (quarters) hinge on general-election nationalization and policy/regulatory shifts if a hardline AG advances.

Trade implications: Direct play is a calibrated NXST long or call-spread into May/June to capture runoff ad upside; size small (2–3% equity exposure) and use 5–10% OTM call spreads to cap premium. Relative-value: long NXST vs partial short of META (or large digital ad incumbents) for 8–12 weeks to capture reallocation; use clear entry/exit tied to FEC buy thresholds and primary outcomes.

Contrarian angles: Consensus assumes a runoff and priced-in local ad upside — that may be overdone if early-voter advantage for Cornyn materializes and he avoids a runoff, returning NXST to prior levels within 48–72 hours. Historical Texas runoffs produced sharp, short-lived ad spikes; the biggest hidden risk is inventory oversupply depressing non-political CPMs, so keep positions small and event‑tied rather than buy-and-hold.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% position long NXST (equity) ahead of potential May runoff; prefer buying June 2026 call spreads 5–10% OTM to cap downside (max premium ~2% portfolio). Exit: reduce/close within 7 days after runoff confirmation or after NXST issues post-quarter guidance.
• Initiate a pair trade: long NXST (1.5% weight) vs short META (0.75% weight) for 8–12 weeks to capture reallocation of short-duration political ad dollars to local TV. Close if FEC/AdIntel weekly Texas political buys are < $3M incremental over any 30‑day window.
• Buy NXST volatility: purchase a small June call spread sized to 25–50% of the cash long if implied vol is cheap; target IV pop of 15–30% into May. Take profits within 2 weeks after runoff air schedules are locked.
• Contingent add/trim: If FEC/AdIntel shows > $5M incremental political buys in Texas within 30 days, add 1–2% more NXST exposure. Conversely, if a candidate clears >50% (no runoff) or early returns favor avoiding a runoff, cut NXST exposure by 50% within 48 hours.