Xeris at Jefferies Conference: Strategic Growth and Future Prospects

At the Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference 2025, Xeris Biopharma (XERS) presented a business overview, projecting $268 million in revenue for the current year, a 32% increase, and maintaining adjusted EBITDA positive status. CEO John Shannon highlighted Recorlev as a key growth driver in the hypercortisolemia market, aiming for $1 billion in Recorlev revenue by 2035, while XP 8121, a hypothyroid treatment, is slated for Phase III trials in 2026 with a potential $1-3 billion peak sales opportunity, addressing a significant unmet need.

Analysis

Xeris Biopharma (NASDAQ:XERS) presented a robust growth outlook at the Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference, highlighting 13-14 consecutive quarters of over 20% revenue growth and forecasting $268 million in revenue for the current year, a 32% increase year-over-year. The company emphasized its achievement and planned maintenance of adjusted EBITDA positivity, which supports self-funding for growth and pipeline development. Key long-term financial targets include $750 million in total revenue by 2030 and $1 billion in revenue from its primary growth driver, Recorlev, by 2035. Recorlev, for hypercortisolemia, is seen as having significant untapped potential due to an expanding market and its differentiated mechanism of action, with management viewing increased competition as a positive factor for raising market awareness and testing. Gvoke, for diabetes rescue, also offers substantial growth through increased market penetration, aiming to reach a larger portion of the 15 million individuals who need such medication. The pipeline asset XP-8121, a novel once-weekly subcutaneous treatment for hypothyroidism, is poised for Phase III trials starting in 2026, with an anticipated market launch around 2030 and a projected peak sales opportunity of $1-3 billion, addressing a significant unmet need in a market that has seen little innovation for decades.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor Recorlev's commercial performance and market share gains in hypercortisolemia, as this is central to achieving the $750 million total revenue target by 2030 and its specific $1 billion revenue goal by 2035.
• The progression of XP-8121 through Phase III trials, starting in 2026, and subsequent clinical data readouts are critical long-term catalysts to watch, given its potential to generate $1-3 billion in peak sales and significantly alter the company's valuation upon potential launch around 2030.
• Consider the company's ability to sustain its adjusted EBITDA positive status while funding ongoing commercialization efforts for Recorlev and Gvoke, alongside the development costs for XP-8121, as indicators of financial discipline and operational efficiency.