Trump reportedly asks EU to levy 100% tariffs on India and China; Ozempic maker Novo to cut 9,000 jobs – business live

The US Supreme Court will decide the legality of Donald Trump's sweeping global tariffs, a ruling that could significantly reshape future trade policy and impact trillions in customs duties, with oral arguments fast-tracked for early November. Separately, Trump has reportedly urged the EU to levy up to 100% tariffs on India and China to pressure Russia, signaling potential new global trade disruptions. Concurrently, Novo Nordisk will cut 9,000 jobs and trimmed its profit forecast due to intense competition from Eli Lilly in the weight-loss drug market, highlighting significant industry pressures. Asian equities rose on weaker US labor data, bolstering expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut.

Analysis

Two significant and distinct risk factors are emerging for investors. Firstly, geopolitical and trade policy uncertainty is escalating, centered on US tariff actions. The US Supreme Court has fast-tracked a case for November to determine the legality of Trump's emergency-powers tariffs, a decision that will impact trillions in customs duties and the scope of executive authority in trade policy. Compounding this, the White House has reportedly proposed that the EU implement 100% tariffs on goods from India and China to pressure Russia, with the US prepared to mirror such actions. This signals a potential new front in global trade disputes, directly threatening supply chains and companies reliant on trade with these nations. Secondly, a major market disruption is evident in the pharmaceutical sector, specifically in the lucrative weight-loss drug market. Novo Nordisk, once Europe's most valuable company, is undertaking a significant restructuring, cutting 9,000 jobs (11% of its workforce) and slashing its operating profit growth forecast from a range of 10-16% down to 4-10%. This defensive move is a direct consequence of intense competition from Eli Lilly, whose Mounjaro drug has been shown in studies to be more effective than Novo's Wegovy, and follows a two-thirds loss in Novo's market value. This backdrop is set against a broader market that is currently focused on monetary policy, with Asian equities rising on expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut following weaker US labor data.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should immediately assess portfolio exposure to global trade, particularly to companies with significant supply chains or revenue derived from China and India, given the dual threats of a Supreme Court ruling on tariff legality and newly proposed 100% tariffs.
• The severe competitive pressure on Novo Nordisk, evidenced by its major restructuring and lowered guidance, warrants extreme caution on the stock (NVO), as it now faces a difficult turnaround against a rival (LLY) with a clinically superior product.
• Eli Lilly's (LLY) position is significantly strengthened by Novo Nordisk's troubles, confirming its disruptive success with Mounjaro and reinforcing the bull case for its continued market share capture in the high-growth obesity drug segment.
• While markets are reacting positively to potential Fed rate cuts, the material risk from a potential trade war escalation could override monetary policy optimism, suggesting a prudent strategy would involve hedging broad equity market exposure.