Buy the SpaceX IPO -- or Wait for Anthropic and OpenAI? The Answer May Surprise You.

The article argues that SpaceX is proceeding with a $75 billion IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, implying a 93x price-to-sales multiple on $18 billion of revenue. It also says OpenAI and Anthropic are preparing IPOs and could each approach or exceed $1 trillion valuations if growth continues, with OpenAI at a $25 billion annualized run rate and Anthropic at a $50 billion run rate. Despite the growth narrative, the author recommends investors avoid all three mega-IPOs due to valuation risk and uncertainty around future profitability.

Analysis

This setup is less a buy-the-IPO story than a signal that capital is flooding into the AI supply chain at exactly the wrong point in the cycle. If these listings come at extreme revenue multiples, the first-order beneficiaries are not the issuers but the infrastructure names that monetize the arms race regardless of who wins the model layer: hyperscale cloud, networking, power, and data-center adjacency. Alphabet is the cleanest public proxy because it can fund AI capex internally, absorb model experimentation, and still defend distribution, while weaker AI challengers may end up as expensive customers rather than durable independents.

The more interesting second-order effect is that public-market visibility could compress private-market pricing power across frontier AI. If public comps reset lower post-listing, late-stage private rounds will likely need to clear with more dilution, stricter governance, and slower markups, which could force a pullback in hiring and compute commitments over the next 2-4 quarters. That would be bearish for the ecosystem’s smaller enablers, but positive for incumbent platforms with monetization already attached to search, productivity, and ads.

The risk case is that a hot IPO window turns into a sentiment event rather than a fundamental one: a strong debut can keep multiple expansion alive for months, but any guidance miss or margin surprise will matter disproportionately because these stories are being priced on path-to-scale, not current profitability. The biggest reversal catalyst is if the market starts asking which layer captures the cash flows—models, compute, or distribution—because historically the distribution layer retains the best economics once hype cools. On that frame, the trade is not to chase the new issuance but to own the picks-and-shovels and the platform with the broadest monetization surface.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Stay long GOOGL into the IPO window; use it as the public-market hedge against AI enthusiasm cooling, with a 3-6 month horizon and favorable downside protection if new listings wobble.
• Avoid chasing the front-line IPOs at launch; wait 30-60 days post-pricing for lockup-related pressure and for the market to reveal whether revenue growth is translating into durable unit economics.
• Pair trade: long AI infrastructure beneficiaries vs short the highest-multiple AI listing basket on first-day pops; target a 2-3 month mean reversion if the IPOs price above ~30x forward sales.
• If a mega-cap AI IPO gaps hard on debut, buy put spreads 1-2 quarters out to express the view that valuation gravity will show up before operating leverage does.
• Use any AI-led risk rally to add selectively to GOOGL on weakness rather than momentum names, since it has the best combination of AI exposure and self-funded capex capacity.