SpaceX IPO'd, and Anthropic and OpenAI Could Go Public in 2026. Should You Buy All Three?

SpaceX's IPO success, including an $85.7 billion raise at a roughly $1.8 trillion valuation and a post-IPO rally of just over 23%, is presented as a template for future AI listings. Anthropic has confidentially filed its S-1 after raising $65 billion at a $965 billion valuation, while OpenAI has also filed confidentially and may go public in late 2026 or early 2027 at an estimated $852 billion valuation. The piece is broadly constructive on long-term AI IPO prospects but cautions that near-term shares could pull back after initial enthusiasm.

Analysis

The immediate beneficiary is the private-market liquidity complex, not just the AI names themselves. A clean IPO window for one frontier franchise resets valuation marks across late-stage AI, making it easier for secondary sellers, crossover funds, and employee option holders to monetize; that creates a reflexive bid for the ecosystem, but also a crowded “sell-the-open” setup once lockup and insider supply loom. The real second-order winner could be public-market AI infrastructure, because investors who miss the headline IPOs often rotate into the picks-and-shovels layer that offers similar growth with less binary headline risk.

The biggest risk is that these deals will be judged on a radically different metric stack than the private rounds. In the first 30-90 days, price discovery will likely be driven by narrative scarcity, but over 6-18 months the market will force a conversion-rate test: revenue quality, gross margin durability, and the slope of compute spend relative to monetization. If either company shows slowing net retention or a widening cash burn gap, the valuation multiple can compress violently even without any fundamental collapse in demand.

The contrarian point is that the article assumes the IPO path itself is bullish, but sequencing can actually cap upside. A successful debut from one frontier AI company raises the bar for the next, because public comps become the anchor; that is helpful for accessibility, but it reduces the room for perpetual private-market optionality. The market may be underestimating how quickly these names become "earnings stocks" once public, which makes the first post-IPO quarter the most important catalyst rather than the listing event itself.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Express a relative-value view with a long basket of AI infrastructure winners vs. short exposure to IPO mania: long NVDA into 3-12 months, funded against any newly listed frontier AI name on post-IPO strength. Thesis: the pick-and-shovel trade monetizes capex regardless of which model winner prevails, while the headline IPO is vulnerable to multiple compression after the first lockup window.
• Do not chase the IPO open; wait 20-45 trading days for insider supply and analyst-coverage volatility to clear before initiating any long in the new listing. Risk/reward is materially better after the first post-listing reset, when implied growth can be bought at a discount to initial scarcity pricing.
• For investors who must participate, use call spreads rather than stock in the first 1-2 weeks post-IPO. A 3-6 month vertical call structure captures upside from narrative momentum while capping downside if the deal fades once fundamentals replace sentiment.
• Add a tactical long in NFLX only if capital rotates out of AI hype into quality growth with visible cash generation. The setup is not direct, but in periods when IPO exuberance cools, high-ROIC platform names often catch flows from investors seeking growth without financing risk.
• Set a catalyst alert for the first reported post-IPO quarter of whichever company lists first; that print will likely be the real inflection point. If gross margin or operating cash flow disappoints by even low-single-digit percentages versus expectation, cut exposure quickly because de-rating can be 20-30% in a matter of days.