‘Wicked: For Good’ Will Deliver Magic To The Box Office With $112M-$115M+ Opening – Early Look

Universal's "Wicked: For Good" is projected to open strongly with $112 million-$115 million on November 21, mirroring its predecessor's success and providing a crucial anchor for exhibitors during the Thanksgiving holiday. The sequel shows robust tracking among women, similar to the original's $756.4 million global gross. While the pre-Thanksgiving weekend lacks a major R-rated tentpole like last year's "Gladiator 2," other films such as Paramount's "Running Man" and Lionsgate's "Now You See Me 3" are scheduled for the preceding week, aiming to capture diverse audiences alongside Sony's "Sisu: Road to Revenge."

Analysis

Universal's "Wicked: For Good" is projected to open between $112 million and $115 million on November 21, closely mirroring its predecessor's $112.5 million debut. This strong forecast positions the film as a crucial anchor for exhibitors during the Thanksgiving holiday, especially given its robust tracking among women, a demographic that constituted 72% of the original's audience and provided an 80% definite recommend. The sequel's shorter runtime of 2 hours and 18 minutes may also enhance audience accessibility.

The broader pre-Thanksgiving market this year lacks a "mega-event R-rated tentpole" like last year's "Gladiator 2," which contributed $55 million to the previous year's $420 million Thanksgiving week total. Instead, the preceding weekend (November 14-16) features Paramount's "Running Man," targeting male audiences, and Lionsgate's "Now You See Me 3," aiming for a four-quadrant appeal. Sony's niche "Sisu: Road to Revenge" also enters the market, projected to double its predecessor's $3.3 million opening.

Despite the positive sentiment surrounding "Wicked: For Good," some analysts express concern that a $115 million opening might be underwhelming given its strong Fandango pre-sales, which were compared to blockbusters like "Endgame." The original "Wicked" ultimately grossed $756.4 million globally, setting a high bar for the sequel's long-term performance and implying potential upside if initial projections are conservative.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor "Wicked: For Good"'s actual opening weekend performance against its $112M-$115M projection, as exceeding this range could signal stronger-than-anticipated holiday box office demand and franchise potential for Universal.
• Evaluate the performance of Paramount's "Running Man" and Lionsgate's "Now You See Me 3" in the preceding week, considering their demographic targeting and potential to diversify holiday revenue streams for their respective studios.
• Assess the overall holiday box office results for implications on exhibition stocks, noting the moderately positive sentiment for the slate but also the absence of a major R-rated tentpole compared to last year's strong Thanksgiving.