Celsius: Off 50% From Its Highs, Is the Stock a Buy as Sales Soar?

Celsius posted strong quarterly results, with overall sales up 138% to $782.6 million, adjusted EPS rising 128% to $0.41, and adjusted EBITDA jumping 181% to $195.5 million. Growth was led by Alani Nu, with pro forma revenue up 60% to $368 million and retail sales doubling, while Celsius brand retail sales rose 6% and shelf space expanded 17%. The company also saw international sales climb 55% to $35.3 million, launched Celsius in Spain, and trades at less than 21x 2026 earnings estimates.

Analysis

The important read-through is that CELH is no longer a single-brand turnaround; it is becoming a shelf-space arbitrage story. Alani Nu is likely the higher-quality engine because incremental distribution has a compounding effect: every new door improves brand velocity, which in turn funds more retailer resets and faster innovation cadence. That creates a second-order benefit for the supplier base too — aluminum, co-packers, and freight leverage should improve if volumes keep inflecting, but the real margin unlock depends on whether Celsius can keep mix from drifting toward lower-margin channels as the portfolio expands.

The market is probably underestimating how much of the current setup is a timing mismatch between reported growth and normalized earnings power. Near term, gross margin pressure can persist even while the top line looks explosive, especially if international launches and new SKU rollouts front-load costs before retailer productivity is proven. If commodity relief arrives over the next 2-3 quarters, the operating leverage could be sharper than consensus implies; if not, the stock can remain cheap for longer despite strong revenue prints.

The contrarian angle is that the bull case may be too dependent on Alani staying hot while Celsius stabilizes, which is not the same as a broad category win. The key risk is retailer concentration: if shelf-space gains are coming from promotional endcaps or temporary resets rather than permanent facings, the growth narrative can slow abruptly within one or two quarters. Overseas expansion is a nice optionality call, but it is unlikely to move the equity until it becomes a meaningful percentage of sales, so the next catalyst is margin progression, not geography.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Go long CELH on a 3-6 month horizon on pullbacks, targeting a re-rating if gross margin trends back toward the low-50s; upside is meaningful if the market starts capitalizing forward EBITDA at a growth multiple instead of discounting near-term cost noise.
• Buy CELH 6-9 month call spreads rather than stock to express upside to a margin recovery and continued Alani distribution gains; this limits downside if shelf-space gains prove temporary.
• Pair trade: long CELH / short a slower-growth beverage peer with weaker distribution momentum over the next 1-2 quarters; the relative call should work if investor focus shifts from headline margin compression to portfolio-level sell-through.
• Set a tactical stop if retailer data shows shelf-space gains decelerating for two consecutive months; that would signal the reset-driven growth is less durable than the market is pricing.
• Avoid chasing immediately after strong quarterly prints; wait for post-earnings consolidation or a commodity-driven drawdown, since the stock is likely to remain volatile until margin inflection is visible.