Invitation to SSAB’s briefing of the Year-end report 2025

SSAB will publish its 2025 year‑end report on 28 January 2026 at approximately 07:30 CET and will host a presentation and webcast at 09:30 CET led by CEO Johnny Sjöström and CFO Leena Craelius; a teleconference option and IR contacts are provided. The invitation contains no financial figures or guidance, but the release and briefing are the primary upcoming investor event for any earnings detail or updates on SSAB's fossil‑free steel initiatives (SSAB Fossil‑free™ and SSAB Zero™).

Analysis

Market structure: SSAB’s year‑end briefing is a catalyst for repricing premium, low‑carbon steel leadership. Winners: SSAB (SSAB A/B) and downstream OEMs seeking low‑CO2 steel able to pay a 5–15% premium; losers: legacy BF‑BOF producers (ArcelorMittal MT, Thyssenkrupp TKAG.DE) and iron‑ore miners if scrap/recycled and hydrogen routes scale. Expect short‑term volatility around Jan 28 but a structural shift in pricing power for firms that prove repeatable, low‑carbon output; carbon prices and renewable power markets become cross‑asset drivers, and SSAB credit spreads should tighten on a positive print.

Risk assessment: Key tail risks are project delays, hydrogen/renewable power cost spikes (>€3–4/kg H2 or >€60/MWh electricity) and capex overruns (order of €0.5–1bn) that can erase 200–400bps of margin. Immediate (days): elevated IV and order‑flow around the release; short (1–3 months): guidance revisions and contract repricing; long (1–3 years): market share gains if fossil‑free scale. Hidden dependencies include long‑term power/H2 offtake contracts, customer willingness to pay a persistent premium, and subsidies/carbon policy stability.

Trade implications: Tactical: establish a modest 2–3% long in SSAB B (SSABB.ST) ahead of the report, sized to be hedged; implement a 2‑month call‑spread (buy ATM, sell +20% strike) to cap cost and buy a -10% OTM protective put. Relative value: pair long SSABB.ST vs short MT (ARS.LN/MT.US) equal notional 1–2% portfolio to isolate green‑steel premium. Rotate +1–2% into electrolysers/H2 names (e.g., NEL.OL) if SSAB confirms secured H2 supply.

Contrarian angles: Consensus may underprice execution and capex risk — a miss could drop shares >20% given thin expectations for profitability timing; conversely, a clear multi‑year supply agreements disclosure could be underappreciated and drive 20–40% upside. Historical parallel: mini‑mill adoption (Nucor) took 3–5 years to crystallize margin gap; watch for unintended consequence of scrap inflation ahead of recycled‑steel scale which could temporarily compress SSAB Zero margins. Monitor four KPIs on release: H2 €/kg, renewable power €/MWh, capex guidance Δ vs prior ≥€100m, and order backlog (kt) change ≥10%.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% portfolio long position in SSAB B (SSABB.ST/SSAB B) 1–2 trading days before the Jan 28 report, hedged by buying a 2‑month 10% OTM put; if SSAB raises FY26 EBITDA guidance by >5% or discloses multi‑year H2 offtakes, add to 4–6%.
• Implement a funded bullish option structure: buy a 2‑month ATM call and sell a +20% strike call (call‑spread) sized at 0.5–1% portfolio to capture upside from a positive print while limiting premium outlay.
• Construct a pair trade: long SSAB B (1–2% notional) and short ArcelorMittal (MT) equal notional, reduce net exposure if SSAB misses margins by >5% or if ArcelorMittal announces countermeasures; target relative return 6–12% over 3–6 months.
• Overweight green hydrogen/electrolyser names (e.g., NEL.OL) by +1–2% if SSAB confirms secured H2 supply or subsidy support; conversely, trim exposure if H2 price guidance >€3.5/kg or renewable power guidance >€60/MWh.