Analysts Estimate Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for

Wall Street anticipates Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) to report a significant year-over-year decline for the quarter ended June 2025, with consensus estimates projecting EPS of $1.23 (-40.6%) on revenues of $11.33 billion (-7.1%). Analyst estimates have recently been revised downwards by 2.12%, and despite a history of beating expectations, BMY's current Zacks Earnings ESP of -13.11% combined with a Zacks Rank #3 suggests a low probability of an earnings beat this quarter, indicating potential negative stock price reaction upon its July 31 release.

Analysis

Bristol Myers Squibb faces a challenging outlook for its upcoming June 2025 quarterly report, with consensus estimates pointing to a significant year-over-year earnings per share decline of 40.6% to $1.23 and a revenue drop of 7.1% to $11.33 billion. This negative sentiment is reinforced by a 2.12% downward revision in the consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days. Furthermore, the company's Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) stands at a deeply negative -13.11%, indicating that the most recent analyst estimates are even more bearish than the consensus, which makes it difficult to conclusively predict an earnings beat despite the stock's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). This contrasts with the company's historical performance, where it has surpassed consensus EPS estimates for the last four consecutive quarters, including a +19.21% surprise in the last reported period. The expected decline appears company-specific rather than industry-wide, as peer GSK is projected to report modest revenue and earnings growth for the same period.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should exercise caution ahead of the July 31 earnings release, as the consensus points to a significant earnings decline and the negative Earnings ESP of -13.11% signals a low probability of a positive surprise.
• Pay close attention to management's forward-looking guidance on the earnings call, as it will be more critical than the headline numbers for determining the stock's future trajectory and assessing the sustainability of its business conditions.
• While Bristol Myers has a strong history of beating consensus, this track record should be heavily weighed against the recent downward trend in analyst revisions, suggesting that a contrarian bet based on past performance carries elevated risk.