Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release

Blue Owl Capital (OWL) is scheduled to report earnings for the quarter ended June 2025 on July 31, with consensus estimates projecting EPS of $0.21, a 10.5% year-over-year increase, on revenues of $636.89 million, up 22.5%. Despite a slight recent upward revision to the consensus EPS estimate, the company's Zacks Earnings ESP of -0.82% and its history of missing consensus EPS estimates in the last four consecutive quarters suggest it is not a strong candidate for an earnings beat, potentially impacting its near-term stock performance.

Analysis

Blue Owl Capital (OWL) is approaching its Q2 2025 earnings release with consensus expectations for significant year-over-year growth, including a 22.5% increase in revenues to $636.89 million and a 10.5% rise in EPS to $0.21. While the consensus EPS estimate has seen a minor upward revision of 0.34% in the last 30 days, several key indicators present a cautious outlook. The company's Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) is negative at -0.82%, suggesting that the most recent analyst revisions are bearish and lowering the probability of an earnings beat. This concern is amplified by the company's historical performance, as it has failed to surpass consensus EPS estimates in any of the last four quarters, highlighted by a -10.53% miss in the previous period. Although the stock carries a neutral Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), the combination of a negative ESP and a consistent pattern of underperformance against estimates makes it difficult to view OWL as a compelling candidate for a positive earnings surprise ahead of its July 31 report.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the negative Earnings ESP of -0.82% and a track record of four consecutive EPS misses, investors should exercise caution, as the probability of another earnings disappointment is elevated.
• Traders should monitor for potential stock price volatility around the earnings release, as the market weighs strong projected year-over-year growth against a weak history of meeting analyst expectations.
• Long-term investors should focus on management's discussion of business conditions and forward guidance during the earnings call, as this will be more critical for the stock's sustainable direction than the headline beat or miss.