July 2026 Trading Outlook: Fiscal Flows, And Fed Interest Rates

Risk assets are supported by strong fiscal flows, with June’s private sector surplus running above $112B alongside sizable Treasury injections. The S&P 500 momentum is expected to continue into mid-August, but the model indicates decelerating gains versus earlier months, suggesting upside may be less forceful.

Analysis

Risk assets are supported by strong fiscal flows, with June’s private sector surplus running above $112B alongside sizable Treasury injections. The S&P 500 momentum is expected to continue into mid-August, but the model indicates decelerating gains versus earlier months, suggesting upside may be less forceful.